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2026 US midterm election results: Democrats win Congress in major setback for Trump

Democrats have captured both chambers of Congress in a sweeping midterm victory, threatening Trump's legislative agenda and triggering a reassessment of US political and market risks.

2026 US midterm election results: Democrats win Congress in major setback for Trump

RBNZ split vote moves the rate question to December

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised markets by holding the cash rate at 2.75%, but the vote was not dovish. Members agreed policy may need to be tightened again; they disagreed over acting now or letting increases reach the economy.

RBNZ split vote moves the rate question to December

Kevin Warsh gives no October rate signal as global tightening gathers pace

Kevin Warsh kept the Fed’s October decision open as markets increasingly price a pause before another possible rate hike in December.

Kevin Warsh gives no October rate signal as global tightening gathers pace

US and China detail $30 billion tariff-cut framework

The US and China have detailed a reciprocal tariff agreement covering consumer goods, agriculture, energy and industrial products.

US and China detail $30 billion tariff-cut framework

US-China trade truce extended as Trump-Xi summit turns to rare earths and AI

Washington says the US-China trade truce will run until Jan. 10, 2027, easing immediate tariff risks while leaving the hardest disputes unresolved.

US-China trade truce extended as Trump-Xi summit turns to rare earths and AI

UK inflation returns above 3% as energy shock tests the Bank of England

UK inflation climbed back above 3% in August, but the rise was driven mainly by energy and transport rather than a broad acceleration in underlying prices.

UK inflation returns above 3% as energy shock tests the Bank of England

US jobs report could break the 50-50 split on a September Fed rate hike

The August jobs report arrives with markets almost perfectly divided over a September Fed rate hike, making any major payroll, unemployment or wage surprise potentially important for rate expectations.

US jobs report could break the 50-50 split on a September Fed rate hike

BOJ leans toward September rate hike as yen weakness keeps inflation risk high

The BOJ is leaning toward a September rate hike, but markets are increasingly focused on whether tightening could accelerate afterward.

BOJ leans toward September rate hike as yen weakness keeps inflation risk high

US private payrolls rise by just 38,000 as labour market slows

US private-sector hiring slowed to its weakest pace since January, raising concerns ahead of Friday’s jobs report.

US private payrolls rise by just 38,000 as labour market slows

New Zealand is entering a harder phase of the rate cycle

The Reserve Bank has already pushed the Official Cash Rate to 2.75%, but the conversation has shifted. It is no longer about whether rates needed to rise. It is about how much further they can go before the economy starts feeling the weight of tighter policy.

New Zealand is entering a harder phase of the rate cycle