Global Macro Analysis

Japan’s economic outlook for Q4 2024

The BOJ may hike rates in Q4, but political changes could push it to December

EU economic outlook for Q4 2024

The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 bps in December, emphasizing "strategic patience" amid inflation risks and weak economic growth. Future cuts will depend on economic conditions.

Q4 Commodities outlook: shaped by policies, supply, geopolitics, and weather

Gold, oil, and agricultural staples like cotton, coffee, and cocoa experience price swings due to central bank policies, supply imbalances, and severe weather, with more volatility expected in Q4

Gold Price Outlook for Q3: Key Drivers & Forecasts

Can gold return to record levels in Q3?

Will the Fed signal an impending policy change at this year's Jackson Hole Symposium?

As Powell's latest Monetary Policy Testimony alludes for the first time to concerns on the FOMC about the dangers of keeping monetary policy tight for too long, is this a signal that he is preparing to use this year's Symposium as on opportunity to put the market on notice for a first interest rate cut?

How could the UK general election impact the markets?

The upcoming July 4 elections in the UK, which could end a 14-year Conservative rule, are expected to influence the markets

Economic outlook for the US - Q3 2024

Has this month's FOMC meeting seen the Fed make a mistake with monetary policy?

This month's FOMC meeting saw the Fed reduce the number of interest rate cuts expected this year from three to just one. We believe this to be a mistake and that additional cuts will be needed before year-end if the Fed is to move ahead of the policy curve.

Heightened market volatility persists regarding the potential for US rate cuts

The markets continue to express a heightened sense of nervousness regarding whether or not the Fed will actually be able to cut interest rates this year.

Economic outlook for the UK - Q2 2024