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In-depth insights on market events and major trades
The ECB is buying time as lending returns and inflation stays uncomfortable
The European Central Bank has reached an uncomfortable point. The economy is still losing momentum in places, but inflation is refusing to cool fast enough to give policymakers much room to relax. That is why markets have become far more confident than the ECB's own communication suggests, with traders now pricing roughly 98% chance of another rate hike in September.
Gold holds near $4,600 as markets wait for Warsh at Jackson Hole
Gold held near $4,600 as investors waited for Kevin Warsh to clarify whether the Fed can stay on hold despite renewed inflation pressure.
Yesterday's data raised the stakes for Jackson hole
Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech has become more important than another inflation report. Investors already know the economy is slowing. They also know inflation has not cooled enough to declare victory. What they still do not know is how the Fed plans to balance those two realities after abandoning the habit of guiding markets toward every next move.
What Kevin Warsh needs to prove at Jackson Hole
Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech as Fed chair is becoming a test of credibility, communication and how clearly he can explain the Fed’s next policy steps.
Gold rally finds stronger support as ETF buying returns
Gold is attracting buyers again, but the bigger story is where the money comes from. The metal climbed to $4,641 on August 24, its highest level in more than three months, while precious-metals funds pulled in more than $4.5 billion during the week. That came even as the world's largest gold ETF briefly lost much of a billion-dollar inflow only a day after receiving it.
Why Scott Bessent cannot easily push Treasury yields lower
Scott Bessent can reshape Treasury issuance, but the forces lifting long-term yields are much bigger than the Treasury Department itself.
Who is buying U.S. Treasury debt now, and why it matters for yields
Foreign investors still finance a large share of U.S. Treasury debt, but private investors are replacing central banks. That shift could make yields more volatile.
Fed minutes show rate hikes are still possible, but September odds are fading
The July Fed minutes were hawkish, but the data released since the meeting has made a September rate hike much harder to justify.
Fed minutes will put the 9-3 split under the microscope as oil reaches $85
The Federal Reserve’s July meeting looked straightforward on the surface: rates stayed unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. The vote underneath was anything but. Three policymakers wanted a rate hike, leaving a 9-3 split that showed how much disagreement had already been built inside the central bank. That is why the minutes matter more than usual. Investors already know who wanted to hike. What they do not know is why the other nine preferred to wait. Were they comfortable that inflation would continue t
Why the 30-year treasury yield just hit a 19-year high - and why inflation isn’t to blame
The 30-year US Treasury yield has climbed above 5.33%, reaching its highest level in 19 years, yet long-term inflation expectations have barely moved. That distinction changes the interpretation of the selloff.
