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A quiet start with big data on the horizon
Investors await key data, with Q2 GDP expected at 2.8% growth and jobless claims steady around 233,000 after an August spike
WTI crude prices trading near $75
Gold is recovering from weekly lows below $2,500 per ounce
EUR/USD is attempting to recover from recent losses
The early part of this week has been relatively calm, with little in the way of major macroeconomic data to stir up market activity. But that’s about to change. Investors are gearing up for the second estimate of Q2 GDP and the latest jobless claims report. The GDP is expected to maintain its strong 2.8% annualized growth rate, a significant rise from the 1.4% in the previous quarter. However, the final GDP numbers won't be out until the end of September. The jobless claims, which will be released alongside the GDP data, are anticipated to stay around the recent 233,000 mark, following a temporary spike in August caused by Hurricane Beryl’s impact on Texas.
Currencies
The New Zealand dollar is flexing its muscles, gaining up to 1.00% in early trading, while the Australian dollar follows with a modest increase. On the flip side, the Japanese yen is under pressure, and EUR/USD pair is trying to recover from Wednesday’s sharp losses, but any further gains could be limited if risk aversion strengthens, driving investors back to the safe-haven U.S. dollar.
Commodities
Oil: The price of WTI crude is losing steam, hovering around $75.15 in early Asian trading on Thursday. Weak demand from China is weighing heavily on prices, although potential supply disruptions from Libya and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could help stabilize the market and limit further declines.
Gold: prices are clawing back some losses after hitting weekly lows below $2,500 per ounce. Expectations of possible U.S. interest rate cuts are boosting demand for gold, as lower rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding this non-yielding asset. However, a strengthening U.S. dollar could act as a counterforce, potentially capping gold's upside.
Investors are keeping a close eye on the upcoming GDP data and Friday's U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for July, which could offer fresh clues on the Federal Reserve's next moves regarding interest rates.
