ECB holds rates steady, inflation to remain elevated into next year

The ECB held rates steady, predicting above-target inflation into next year, while US jobless claims rose above expectations.

By Ahmed Azzam | @3zzamous | 18 July 2024

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  • ECB keeps interest rates unchanged as expected

  • Headline inflation expected to stay above target into next year

  • US jobless claims rise to 243,000, exceeding forecasts

The European Central Bank (ECB) has left interest rates unchanged, as widely expected. The rates for the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility remain at 4.25%, 4.50%, and 3.75%, respectively.

In its statement, the ECB noted that incoming data broadly supports the Governing Council’s medium-term inflation outlook. Most measures of underlying inflation were “either stable or edged down” in June, with the impact of high wage growth “buffered by profits.”

However, domestic price pressures remain “still high,” with services inflation described as “elevated.” Headline inflation is projected to “remain above the target well into next year.”

The ECB pledged to keep policy rates “sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary” and will continue to adopt a “data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting” approach, without “pre-committing” to a specific rate path.

US initial jobless claims rise to 243,000, exceeding expectations

US initial jobless claims rose by 20,000 to 243,000 in the week ending July 13, surpassing expectations of 225,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims increased by 1,000 to 235,000.

Continuing claims rose by 20,000 to 1,867,000 in the week ending July 6, the highest level since November 27, 2021. The four-week moving average of continuing claims increased by 12,000 to 1,851,000, the highest since December 4, 2021.

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