Gold holds above $2,500 despite Dollar strength

Investors are closely watching the release of the FOMC minutes, which could provide clues on whether the Federal Reserve might ease monetary policy soon.

By Farah Mourad | 21 August 2024

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  • The Japanese Yen weakens, driven by Japan's unexpectedly large trade deficit

  • EUR/USD slipping toward 1.1120

  • WTI crude struggles near two-week lows

Macroeconomic Overview

Today’s calendar lacks substantial macroeconomic data releases, leaving the market with a relatively quiet session ahead. However, investors will have their attention fixed on the release of the FOMC minutes. The minutes could provide critical insights into whether the Federal Reserve might consider easing monetary policy in the near term.

Earlier in the day, Canada will release its data on industrial product prices, which could offer some guidance on inflationary pressures in the country.

Currencies

In early trading, the Australian Dollar emerged as one of the stronger performers, while the Japanese Yen continues to struggle. The USD/JPY pair has climbed back above the 145.70 level.

Japan's trade balance for July revealed a larger-than-expected deficit of 621.8 billion yen (approximately $4.2 billion). Exports rose by 10.3% year-over-year, falling short of the expected 11.4% increase, while imports surged by 16.6%, outpacing forecasts of 14.9% and accelerating significantly from June’s 3.2% growth. The weaker export numbers can be attributed to ongoing disruptions in industrial production, while stronger domestic demand has pushed up import volumes.

The JPY’s recent decline has interrupted its three-day winning streak against the US Dollar, following the release of the trade balance data. However, the downside might be contained as markets not ruling out another potential rate hike from the Bank of Japan, particularly with BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda scheduled to address parliament on Friday.

The Euro saw some pressure against the US Dollar in the Asian session, with the EUR/USD pair dipping toward the 1.1120 level. The stronger dollar sentiment is tempered by the possibility that dovish signals from the Fed could limit further upside.

Commodities Market

Gold prices remain steady, trading above the critical $2,500 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday. The metal stays close to its recent highs, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon begin easing monetary policy, potentially with a 25 basis point cut in September. Additionally, lingering geopolitical tensions, China’s economic challenges, and a slight dip in global risk appetite continue to bolster the safe-haven appeal of gold.

Crude oil prices (WTI) are struggling, remaining near the two-week lows hit on Tuesday. The market is weighed down by an unexpected rise in US crude inventories, alongside easing tensions in the Middle East. Furthermore, ongoing concerns about China’s economic health are keeping oil bulls on the sidelines.

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