Support
Markets focus on Jackson Hole
Significant downward revision in U.S. payrolls for March 2024 strengthens the case for rate cuts, but raises recession fears.
Jackson Hole Focus: Central bankers meet in Jackson Hole, with markets eyeing Powell for signals on potential rate cuts amid weakening labor data.
Job Market Concerns: U.S. jobless claims rose to 232K, adding to signs of a softening labor market.
Commodities Slump: Oil prices near weekly lows; Brent crude loses year-to-date gains due to non-OPEC+ supply growth and weak demand.
Payroll data revised
A significant downward revision in U.S. payrolls data for the year ending in March 2024 has strengthened the argument for lowering interest rates. However, it has also heightened concerns that a weakening labor market could be a sign of an impending U.S. recession, particularly given the recent softness in payroll figures.
Payroll growth was revised down by 818k the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning, indicating that the actual job growth was almost 30% lower than what was initially reported.
Jackson Hole
Central bankers gather at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday for further insights into the economy.
Recent signs of a weakening U.S. job market have bolstered the case for interest rate cuts, particularly as some Fed officials appeared inclined to reduce borrowing costs during the last meeting in late July. Investors are now keenly focused on any indications that Powell might further support this stance.
Moreover, in terms of data, US jobless claims increased to 232K in the week ending "August 16" up from the previously recorded 228K claims.
Commodities
Oil prices were hovering near weekly lows, with WTI close to $71 and Brent near $75.
Brent crude has erased all its year-to-date gains, driven not by a lack of discipline among OPEC+ members but by supply growth from non-OPEC+ producers and demand challenges in key markets such as China.
