Markets rebound after yesterday's drop

Markets await October PMI data, with expectations of strong U.S. services at 55 points, while manufacturing is anticipated to remain weak at 47.5, highlighting sectoral divergence

By Farah Mourad | 24 October 2024

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  • Australia's manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.6 in October, marking its lowest level in over four years

  • Japan's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0, below expectations

  • Gold stabilized after a recent pullback

Asia-Pacific

  • Australia: Australia's manufacturing sector remains under pressure, as the PMI Manufacturing index edged down from 46.7 in September to 46.6 in October, marking its lowest level in over four years. However, the services sector, which drives over 80% of the nation's economic output, showed resilience. The PMI for services rose slightly from 50.5 to 50.6, with new business activity reaching its highest since May, signaling modest growth.

  • Japan: Japan’s manufacturing sector also faced challenges, with the PMI falling to 49.0, below the expected 49.9 and down from 49.7 in the previous month. This marks the fourth straight month of contraction, accompanied by a decline in new orders across both manufacturing and services. The services sector PMI dipped to 49.3 from 49.6, reflecting similar contractionary pressures.

Europe and the United States:

  • Macroeconomic Focus: Today's economic calendar brings several key updates, with a focus on the preliminary PMI figures for October across European nations and the United States. The release of weekly U.S. jobless claims and new home sales data is also expected, offering further insights into economic health.
    • European PMIs: Preliminary data for October will cover France, Germany, the broader Eurozone, and the UK. Market expectations suggest that manufacturing PMIs across the Eurozone will remain subdued, while the services sector continues to show stronger results.
    • U.S. PMIs: In the U.S., markets expect a widening divergence between sectors. The services sector is projected to post a robust 55 points, reflecting steady growth, whereas the manufacturing sector is anticipated to stay in contraction territory at around 47.5 points.

Commodities:

  • Silver: Silver prices saw a modest recovery during the Asian session on Thursday, halting the recent downward trend from the $34.85-$34.90 range—the highest level since October 2012.

  • Gold: Gold prices witnessed a fresh wave of buying interest during the Asian session, stabilizing after a pullback from a recent record high. Ongoing political uncertainty in the U.S. ahead of the November 5th Presidential election, coupled with Middle East tensions, has maintained demand for the safe-haven asset. Additionally, retreating U.S. Treasury yields prompted some profit-taking on the U.S. Dollar, further supporting gold prices.
    Despite the dip-buying, prospects of smaller rate cuts by the Federal Reserve post-election, and concerns over U.S. deficit spending could keep U.S. bond yields from falling sharply. This scenario favors USD strength, suggesting caution before making aggressive bullish moves on gold. Investors will closely watch the up
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