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US–Iran deal hopes lift equities and sink oil prices; ADP, Ivey PMI beat forecasts
A potential US–Iran peace agreement lifted equities and pushed oil lower as traders priced in less supply risk and softer inflation pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 set fresh records, while Brent and WTI fell sharply. Stronger-than-expected ADP private payrolls and a robust Canadian Ivey PMI added to the data-driven backdrop.
Oil volatility surges amid Hormuz instability; RBA raises rates, ISM PMI expands
Oil prices have experienced heightened volatility amidst significant instability in the Middle Eastern region. Simultaneously, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increased interest rates to 4.35% to mitigate energy-driven inflationary pressures. In the United States, the ISM Services PMI indicated continued expansion at 53.6, although the figure fell short of analyst forecasts.
Central Banks brace for another inflation fight
How rapidly central banks are shifting back toward a more aggressive inflation stance after briefly hoping the energy shock might stay contained.
BoE and ECB hold rates steady; US PCE rises while GDP growth misses forecasts
The Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) maintained interest rates at their current levels while adopting a hawkish rhetorical shift in response to escalating Middle Eastern tensions and energy-driven inflationary pressures. Concurrently, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index surged to 3.5%, while the first-quarter GDP growth reached 2.0%, failing to meet market expectations.
US and German confidence hit multi-year lows, while UK retail sales rise
Global sentiment is fracturing as the US-Israel-Iran conflict drives energy prices higher. Michigan consumer sentiment hit an all-time low, and German business confidence fell to levels not seen since 2020. Conversely, UK retail sales showed unexpected resilience, shifting market focus toward the Bank of England’s upcoming interest rate decision.
US markets rise on geopolitical relief and strong Q1 performance; UK inflation accelerates
US equity markets reached record valuations following the indefinite extension of the US-Iran ceasefire and a series of robust Q1 earnings reports. In contrast, the United Kingdom’s inflation rate accelerated to 3.3%, driven by soaring energy costs and intensifying concerns regarding stagflation. Meanwhile, Japan’s trade surplus expanded to a multi-year high, underpinned by unprecedented demand for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.
Stocks retreat as US–Iran tensions persist; US retail sales jump, UK jobless rate dips
Global equities retreated as escalating US–Iran tensions exacerbated geopolitical uncertainty and drove energy prices higher. Conversely, the US economy demonstrated notable resilience, with retail sales reaching a one-year high. Meanwhile, the UK unemployment rate declined to 4.9%, reflecting a recovery in the labour market despite a cooling in overall employment growth.
China’s GDP beats forecasts; Eurozone inflation accelerates; US production declines
China’s Q1 2026 GDP grew 5%, exceeding forecasts despite weak demand and geopolitical risks. Simultaneously, Eurozone inflation reached 2.6% due to high energy costs. Conversely, US industrial production fell 0.5% in March.
US stocks set new highs amid hopes of conflict resolution in the Middle East
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices have scaled record highs, propelled by growing optimism regarding potential diplomatic deliberations in Pakistan aimed at resolving the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Simultaneously, a significant drawdown in US energy inventories suggests a strengthening in demand, while a mounting political pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell raises critical questions regarding the continued independence of the central bank.
China trade and Aussie sentiment weaken, but markets rally on geopolitical relief hopes
Ongoing tensions in the Middle East have disrupted global trade corridors, causing China’s trade balance to contract significantly to $51.13 billion and sending Australian confidence to multi-year lows. However, optimism surrounding potential peace negotiations in Pakistan bolstered US equity markets and gold prices.