US tariffs set to ignite trade tensions amid broader geopolitical uncertainty

Fresh US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China take effect March 4, raising fears of retaliation, while markets brace for key economic data and geopolitical shifts.

By Ahmed Azzam | @3zzamous | 3 March 2025

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  • New US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China take effect on March 4.

  • China hints at retaliatory tariffs and non-tariff barriers.

  • US closely watches a UK-EU push for a Ukraine peace plan.

  • Key US economic data, including non-farm payrolls, set for release this week.

  • ECB expected to cut interest rates again this week.

Multiple US tariffs targeting Canada, Mexico, and China are scheduled to take effect on Tuesday, March 4, intensifying an already fraught trade environment. The tariffs come as speculation mounts over potential retaliatory measures, with Beijing already hinting at counteractions that could include duties on US agricultural exports and the imposition of non-tariff barriers.

At the same time, Washington is expected to closely monitor a fresh diplomatic initiative. A new UK-EU effort to craft a peace plan for Ukraine follows closely on the heels of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s high-profile confrontation with former President Trump at the Oval Office just two days ago. The US response to this plan could carry significant geopolitical ramifications.

Market watchers will also be paying close attention to a series of key economic indicators set to be released throughout the week.

Weekly Economic Highlights

  • Monday:

Japan PMI Manufacturing Final

China Caixin PMI Manufacturing

Swiss PMI Manufacturing

Eurozone CPI Flash, PMI Manufacturing Final

UK PMI Manufacturing Final

Canada PMI Manufacturing

US ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending

  • Tuesday:

New Zealand Building Permits

Japan Unemployment Rate, Capital Spending, Monetary Base, Consumer Confidence

Australia RBA Minutes, Retail Sales

Eurozone Unemployment Rate

  • Wednesday:

Australia GDP

China Caixin PMI Services

Eurozone PMI Services Final, PPI

UK PMI Services Final

US ADP Employment, ISM Services, Factory Orders, Fed’s Beige Book Report

  • Thursday:

Australia Building Permits, Goods Trade Balance

Swiss Unemployment Rate

UK PMI Construction

Eurozone Retail Sales, ECB Rate Decision, US Jobless Claims, Trade Balance

Canada Ivey PMI

  • Friday:

China Trade Balance

Germany Factory Orders

Swiss Foreign Currency Reserves

Eurozone GDP Revision

Canada Employment

US Non-Farm Payrolls

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