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Why gold not affected by US-China trade deal?

16 Dec 2019 11:45 AM


Gold trading stabilized with the ambiguity of the trade negotiations, and whether it will be finalized before the presidential elections in 2020, or not despite the announcement by the two parties on Friday that an agreement was reached in the first stage of the negotiations that includes some points, the most prominent of which are:
1- Reducing American tariffs on Chinese imports from 15% to 7.5% on products valued at $ 125 billion.
2- Reducing tariffs from 25% to 15% on some other products by $ 125 billion.
3- The suspension of imposing tariffs on goods from both parties that were due to come into effect yesterday.
4- Increasing Chinese purchases of American agricultural commodities by 35 billion dollars in two years.
5- Increasing purchases of services and other products to $ 200 billion in two years.
But the lack of a documented agreement on that stage of negotiations and the ambiguity of the statements of the two sides about what the situation will lead to and the date for the completion of the second phase of negotiations caused continued uncertainty and risk aversion, which was reflected in the trading of the yellow metal and stability near the levels of 1480 dollars per ounce to remain our neutral viewpoint On it is a list that has long settled trading between levels 1480, 1460 dollars per ounce.
Positive data continues in China dominating the markets against the backdrop of stimulus measures resorted to by the difficult Bank of China in the last time was the most recent issued this morning, which showed industrial production growth on an annual basis of 6.2% with stability of fixed assets investments at 5.2% which prevented gold from the rush Highs of $ 1480 an ounce.
On the other hand, the European economy continues to suffer from the strong slowdown that led us to believe that the view of European Central Governor Christine Lagarde will undoubtedly change in 2020, and may even take more stimulus measures after Draghi's policies previously failed to provide any support to the economy. The manufacturing sector continued to shrink in the euro zone economy and the German economy since the beginning of the year to put pressure on euro trading and make us expect it to continue its decline against the US dollar to 1.11.
Markets are awaiting UK manufacturing and service data, and the contraction is expected to continue to dominate the two sectors. However, it must be borne in mind that the impact of these data may be minimal on the trading of the British pound, which received the support of the Conservative Party led by Johnson, who won the majority of the parliamentary elections, and which may contribute to the smooth exit from the European Union in January 2020. We may see the return of the rise in sterling dollars again From 1.3230 to 1.35 levels.
Oil prices continued to rise against the backdrop of the OPEC production agreement reached at its last meeting, which will refrain from the oil supply on the one hand, and on the other hand, markets are optimistic about the expectations of higher demand in 2020, which may support price increases towards levels of $ 62.00 a barrel as long as trading stabilizes The highest level is $ 60 a barrel.
Apple shares rose to new highs at 275.23, and we expect it to continue rising towards $ 280 levels, while JP Morgan rebounded from its highest level of $ 139 to make us expect the stock to give up some gains to $ 132 levels before resuming its upward trend again.
Finally, the DAX index rebounded slightly after hitting its highest level at 13460, but the DAX may lose some of its value due to the continued damage to the main sectors in the euro area to the level of 13200 before it starts to rise again.

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