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Fed over-tightening risk grows as 5% Treasury yields threaten US consumer spending

Fed over-tightening risk grows as 5% Treasury yields threaten US consumer spending

Has the bond market already done the Fed's tightening?The Federal Reserve is approaching a potentially dangerous point in its monetary tightening cycle. With the 10-year US Treasury yield having climbed...

2026 US midterm elections: Key races, polls and what’s at stake for Trump

2026 US midterm elections

US Treasuries face a 3% inflation trap as the stock-bond hedge breaks down

US Treasuries face a 3% inflation trap as the stock-bond hedge breaks down

Silver faces a test of resilience

13 October 2026

Silver - Q4 Outlook 2026

Gold caught between central banks and the Fed

13 October 2026

Gold - Q4 Outlook 2026

Fiscal pressure leaves the UK caught between inflation and growth

13 October 2026

UK - Q4 Outlook 2026

Japan’s tightening path meets fiscal pressure

13 October 2026

Japan - Q4 Outlook 2026

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Market Minutes

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Oil rises on Middle East risks; UK retail sales weaken while Canadian sales improve

Markets today EN

US import inflation surges as industrial production nears four-year peak

Markets today EN

US PPI beats forecasts as oil inventories drop sharply; global industry weakens

Markets today EN

US home sales rise despite high mortgage rates; Australian confidence weakens

Markets today EN

Daily discussion thread for October 9, 2026

Markets today EN

Daily discussion thread for October 8, 2026

Markets today EN

Daily discussion thread for October 7, 2026

Markets today EN

Daily discussion thread for October 6, 2026

Markets today EN

Daily discussion thread for October 5, 2026

Markets today EN

Daily discussion thread for October 2, 2026

Markets today EN

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Trading Ideas

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Market maker model in ICT: how to identify buy and sell models

CL Articles_October_Market Maker Model

Donchian channel strategy: how to trade breakouts and trends

CL Articles_October_Donchain Channel_ART

Contango vs backwardation: what futures curves tell traders

Contango vs backwardation what futures curves tell traders

Stop run vs Stop hunt: how traders identify liquidity sweeps

CL Articles_October_Stop run v stop hunt

NDOG and NWOG in ICT: how to trade new day and new week opening gaps

CL Articles_October_NDOG NWOG

A guide to the Phillips curve and monetary policy

CL Articles_October_Philips curve

How traders identify propulsion blocks

CL Articles_October_Propulsion block

A beginner’s guide to earnings reports

ART_Articles_October_Earnings report

What is the Fed's dual mandate?

ART Articles_October_Feds dual mandate

A guide to bond prices and yields

CL Articles_October_Bond prices and yields

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Breaking Data

Latest stock market data on the performance of indices, currencies and commodities

RBNZ split vote moves the rate question to December

CL Articles_October_Interest rate_06

Kevin Warsh gives no October rate signal as global tightening gathers pace

Kevin Warsh gives no signal on October Fed rate decision

US and China detail $30 billion tariff-cut framework

US-China tariff deal covers $30 billion in goods

US-China trade truce extended as Trump-Xi summit turns to rare earths and AI

US-China trade truce extended as Trump-Xi summit turns to rare earths and AI

UK inflation returns above 3% as energy shock tests the Bank of England

UK CPI in August 2026

US jobs report could break the 50-50 split on a September Fed rate hike

US jobs report could break the 50-50 split on a September Fed rate hike

BOJ leans toward September rate hike as yen weakness keeps inflation risk high

image-20260820-082556

US private payrolls rise by just 38,000 as labour market slows

US Employment

New Zealand is entering a harder phase of the rate cycle

New Zealand economy-1

Fed’s Lisa Cook signals rate hike unless inflation improves soon

Lisa Cook signals rate hike

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Market Insights

In-depth insights on market events and major trades

UK Budget 2026: inflation, BoE rate hikes and gilt yields

CL Articles_October 2_BoE_06

Gold price falls below $4,000 as stock market selloff triggers liquidity pressure

Gold price falls below $4,000 amid stock market rout

Yen carry trade unwind: could Japanese inflation trigger another wave of selling?

CL Articles_October_Japan Economy_03

Gold price forecast: why inflation and rising yields are weighing on gold

Technical Analysis_gold_Oct_06

Trump’s Russia diesel deal: energy supplies, oil sanctions and Ukraine talk

CL Articles_October2_Rus UKR_03

The Fed second oil shock: inflation, interest rates and the December decision

CL Articles_October_Fed_00

ECB rate outlook: Eurozone inflation, French debt and rising bond yields

CL Articles_October_ECB_01

What could justify a Fed rate pause or another hike?

CL Articles_US Inflation_5

Fed September minutes: AI investment, energy prices and tariffs complicate rate outlook

CL Articles_October_Fed_02

G7 oil release targets the diesel crisis, but energy risks are far from resolved

CL Articles_Oil_6

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Trade Reviews

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USD/CAD forecast: can the Canadian dollar rally after the BoC decision?

Technical Analysis_USDCAD_Oct

European natural gas extends rally, reaching its highest price since December 2022

Technical Analysis_Natural gas_ART_Oct 27

Yen advances amid accelerating inflation in Japan

Technical Analysis_USDJPY_ART_Oct23

Week ahead: Central Bank decisions, inflation, and AI risks

Week Ahead - EN

Brent price surge as Houthi-Saudi tensions persist

Technical Analysis_Oil_ART_Oct22

EUR/USD forecast: could French debt risks weigh on the Euro?

Technical Analysis_EURUSD_Oct-1

Nikkei 225 tests key support level as Japan's trade balance weakens

NIKKEI_ART_Oct21

WTI crude oil forecast: can supply risks push prices above $103?

Technical Analysis_CrudeOil

British pound strengthens against the US dollar as UK unemployment rate falls

Technical Analysis_GBPUSD_ART_Oct20

Canadian dollar gains despite softer-than-expected inflation

Technical Analysis_USDCAD_ART_Oct19

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THE TEAM

Our Contributors

Raed Alkhedr

Gold consolidation paves the way for new highs in 2026

21 January 2026

Ahmed Azzam

Fed over-tightening risk grows as 5% Treasury yields threaten US consumer spending

Nadia Elbilassy

Nadia Elbilassy

Asian markets decline

3 September 2024

Rufas Kamau

Silver faces a test of resilience

13 October 2026

Daniel Mejía

European natural gas extends rally, reaching its highest price since December 2022

Yazeed Abu Summaqa

Yazeed Abu Summaqa

USD/CAD forecast: can the Canadian dollar rally after the BoC decision?