Global Macro Analysis

The latest financial, market & economic analysis

Gold is being pulled in two directions

Gold enters Q2 in a more complex environment than initially expected. What looked set to be a quarter driven primarily by safe-haven demand has evolved into a broader interplay between geopolitics, energy prices, inflation expectations and rate sensitivity.

Silver is under pressure and the next move matters

Silver has already seen a record rally, a sharp supply shock and a historic one-day collapse, all within weeks. Now, as Q2 begins, geopolitics, policy and positioning are starting to collide, leaving the outlook far less clear.

Japan hit by inflation, policy and trade pressures

Japan’s economic outlook is tightening, as persistent inflation, energy-driven uncertainty and weakening trade dynamics come together to create a more constrained and less predictable environment.

Sticky inflation is cornering the BoE

In Q2 the Bank of England is facing a difficult trade-off. Inflation remains stubborn, growth is weak and public finances are under increasing strain. Together, these forces are limiting policy flexibility and reinforcing the case for rates to stay higher for longer.

How many more inflation shocks can the Fed afford to look through?

The Federal Reserve has spent years arguing that inflation spikes tied to supply shocks should not automatically trigger a policy response. That logic still holds, at least for now. But after yet another surge in consumer prices — this time driven by the Iran-linked energy shock — the harder question is no longer whether the Fed should react immediately, but how many more “temporary” shocks households and businesses will tolerate before they stop believing inflation will ever return to 2%.

Japan inflation risks rise as war and policy collide

Japan is once again being pulled into a familiar problem rising inflation driven by forces largely outside its control. The shift is already visible in markets. Japanese government bond yields have climbed to their highest levels since 1999, signaling not just rising inflation expectations but also a lack of natural buyers at current levels.

6 Apr 2026, 09:24

A year after "Liberation Day", global trade looks bruised - not broken

One year after President Donald Trump unveiled his so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs, the feared collapse in global trade has not materialized. The shock was real, but the actual economic damage proved smaller than many expected, thanks to exemptions, delayed implementation, trade deals and a global supply chain that adapted faster than the headlines suggested.

2 Apr 2026, 08:50

Oil market between options market and supply concerns

Brent crude closed yesterday at $103.76 per barrel, up 5.42% in a single day and a staggering 47.88% over the past month. With Middle East tensions, Russian supply disruptions, and record options positioning, the market is grappling with risks that could easily push prices into uncharted territory. Here’s a deeper look at the forces at play.

27 Mar 2026, 11:41

Fed faces a new test as war and oil reshape the rates expectations

The Federal Reserve is entering a far more complicated phase of its policy cycle. What once looked like a gradual move toward rate cuts has shifted into a wait-and-see stance, as rising oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions begin to reshape inflation expectations.

25 Mar 2026, 10:01

Could geopolitical tensions in the Middle East delay the path of rate cuts?

The Federal Reserve heads into this week’s meeting facing a more complicated policy backdrop, as the conflict in the Middle East revives inflation risks and forces markets to rethink the path for US interest rates. What had been a debate over when cuts might begin is increasingly turning into a tougher question: whether the Fed will be able to cut at all this year.

17 Mar 2026, 09:33