Global Macro Analysis

The US Q4 outlook

New era of stimulative policies in the US

Commodities in Q4: Key Market Drivers & Risks

Gold, oil, and agricultural staples like cotton, coffee, and cocoa experience price swings due to central bank policies, supply imbalances, and severe weather, with more volatility expected in Q4

Bitcoin Q4 outlook

Can Bitcoin reach $100K in this bullish cycle?

China's economy Q4 outlook

The yuan has gained from the Fed's easing cycle, but potential PBOC rate cuts in Q4 2024 may introduce downward pressure.

Gold Market Projections for Q3 – Key Drivers

Can gold return to record levels in Q3?

Oil Q3 outlook

Will global supply risks continue to offset oil demand concerns in Q3?

Will the Fed signal an impending policy change at this year's Jackson Hole Symposium?

As Powell's latest Monetary Policy Testimony alludes for the first time to concerns on the FOMC about the dangers of keeping monetary policy tight for too long, is this a signal that he is preparing to use this year's Symposium as on opportunity to put the market on notice for a first interest rate cut?

Potential Market Reactions to the UK General Election

The upcoming July 4 elections in the UK, which could end a 14-year Conservative rule, are expected to influence the markets

Economic outlook for the US - Q3 2024

Has this month's FOMC meeting seen the Fed make a mistake with monetary policy?

This month's FOMC meeting saw the Fed reduce the number of interest rate cuts expected this year from three to just one. We believe this to be a mistake and that additional cuts will be needed before year-end if the Fed is to move ahead of the policy curve.