US inflation tops forecasts; China trade weakens; Anthropic eyes $1.4tn IPO valuation

Date: 11 November 2026 (GMT+3)

US inflation rises above analysts' expectations; US dollar index and government bonds advance

The US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) reported that headline inflation rose by 0.4% month-on-month (MoM) in October, exceeding analysts' forecasts of 0.3%. Additionally, the BLS reported that the core inflation rate—which excludes volatile energy and unprocessed food components—advanced by 0.3%, surpassing market consensus estimates of 0.2%. Notably, the year-on-year (YoY) inflation rate for October was not published, as the US government shutdown of October 2025 caused a lack of data.

The BLS reported that the most significant price increases occurred in food and housing—as highlighted by CNBC. This is particularly relevant for the Federal Reserve, as sustained price pressures across essential consumer categories could complicate its efforts to bring inflation under control. Energy prices also rose by 0.7%, though this represented a marked moderation compared with September's advance, suggesting that energy-related inflationary pressures have eased yet remain persistent.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market-implied probabilities signal a 90.5% likelihood that the US central bank will raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at its December meeting, alongside a 9.5% probability of a 50-basis-point hike.

Consequently, the US Dollar Index (DXY)—which monitors the greenback's performance against a basket of major currencies including the euro, British pound, and Japanese yen—rose by 0.57% to 102.25 as expectations of a hawkish posture from the Fed mounted. In turn, US Treasury bond yields rose by 10.8 basis points to 4.99%.

China's trade surplus declines amid sharp increase in imports

According to data published by China's General Administration of Customs, the trade balance narrowed from $133.53 billion in September to $105.28 billion in October, falling short of analysts' estimates of $125.8 billion.

Notably, the underlying narrowing of the surplus was primarily driven by a sharp rise in imports, which surged by 41.6% year-on-year (YoY) to $307.05 billion—the highest annual increase since May 2021. Conversely, Chinese exports grew by 35.2% YoY to $412.33 billion, representing a slight deceleration from the previous month's 36.3% growth rate.

Whilst exports exhibited a mild deceleration, robust global demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related products continues to support China's trade surplus.

Furthermore, Trading Economics highlights that China's imports of high-tech products surged by 50.8%, electrical and mechanical products advanced by 41%, automatic data-processing equipment jumped by 136.7%, and integrated circuit imports rose by 65.1%. This surge suggests that Chinese supply chains are integrating substantial quantities of high-tech components as the nation advances in the global race for AI leadership. Nevertheless, the country remains reliant on foreign products to meet domestic and international demand.

Additionally, the General Administration of Customs revealed substantial commodity imports, most notably copper, coal, and crude oil.

Following the trade data release, equity indices reflected a modest market reaction: the FTSE China A50 Index advanced by 0.11% to 12,916, whilst the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.28% to 24,581.

Figure 1. China Imports YoY (2021–2026). Source: Data from China's General Administration of Customs; chart retrieved via Trading Economics.

Anthropic targets $1.4 trillion IPO amid AI boom

According to a report by Reuters, Anthropic's Initial Public Offering (IPO) is expected to value the AI firm at between $1 trillion and $1.4 trillion of market capitalization. Against this backdrop, the company is seeking to raise $64.4 billion through the sale of 825 million shares priced between $70 and $78 per share.

Additionally, the AI giant could secure $26 billion via a separate private placement with strategic investors, including Alphabet, Nvidia, and Advanced Micro Devices—as cited by Reuters.

Crucially, Anthropic's current target falls below earlier valuation estimates, which projected that the company could reach a $2 trillion valuation. This moderation stems from ongoing concerns that Democrats—having secured control of both chambers of the US Congress—may pursue stricter regulation of AI projects. Data centres have faced growing public backlash in the US due to their heavy demand on public infrastructure and resources, particularly water and energy.