Global Macro Analysis

EU economic outlook for Q4 2024

The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 bps in December, emphasizing "strategic patience" amid inflation risks and weak economic growth. Future cuts will depend on economic conditions.

The US Q4 outlook

New era of stimulative policies in the US

Q4 Commodities outlook: shaped by policies, supply, geopolitics, and weather

Gold, oil, and agricultural staples like cotton, coffee, and cocoa experience price swings due to central bank policies, supply imbalances, and severe weather, with more volatility expected in Q4

Bitcoin Q4 outlook

Can Bitcoin reach $100K in this bullish cycle?

China's economy Q4 outlook

The yuan has gained from the Fed's easing cycle, but potential PBOC rate cuts in Q4 2024 may introduce downward pressure.

Gold Q3 outlook

Can gold return to record levels in Q3?

Oil Q3 outlook

Will global supply risks continue to offset oil demand concerns in Q3?

Will the Fed signal an impending policy change at this year's Jackson Hole Symposium?

As Powell's latest Monetary Policy Testimony alludes for the first time to concerns on the FOMC about the dangers of keeping monetary policy tight for too long, is this a signal that he is preparing to use this year's Symposium as on opportunity to put the market on notice for a first interest rate cut?

How could the UK general election impact the markets?

The upcoming July 4 elections in the UK, which could end a 14-year Conservative rule, are expected to influence the markets

Economic outlook for the US - Q3 2024