... Market Insights A guide to the French Parliamentary Elections

A guide to the French Parliamentary Elections

Le Pen's National Rally leads in first round of French Parliamentary Elections in an unexpected triumph

By Nadia Elbilassy | @Nadia Elbilassy | 4 July 2024

A total of 577 seats in the National Assembly are being contested
The next prime minister of France is likely to come from the party or coalition that secures the majority of these seats.
French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called for immediate legislative elections, with the first round on June 30 and the second round on July 7.

Marine Le Pen and her National Rally party have seen an outstanding increase in support since 2017, as highlighted by Bloomberg's analysis of data from France's Interior Ministry. This surge was observed in 98.6% of France’s municipalities during the first round of a recent snap election.

In 83.3% of these areas, particularly in Paris, Haute-Corse, Cantal, and Lozère, Le Pen’s party and its allies at least doubled their vote share during this legislative election, which saw the highest first-round turnout since 1997. This is a stark contrast to their 2017 performance, where the National Rally scored below 10% in two-thirds of the municipalities within these four departments.

Dissolving the National Assembly in June, French President Emmanuel Macron called for immediate legislative elections. The first round of voting began on June 30, followed by the second round on July 7. With 577 seats in the National Assembly which are being contested, and the next prime minister of France is expected to come from the party or coalition that secures the majority of these seats.

Results

Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally party secured the lead with 33% of the vote.
The leftist alliance New Popular Front gathered nearly 28%.
President Macron's ruling coalition got third place with 20%.

In the initial round of France's snap parliamentary elections on Sunday, Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally party secured the lead with 33% of the vote, according to the interior ministry. The leftist alliance New Popular Front followed closely in second place, garnering nearly 28%. President Macron's ruling coalition trailed behind in third position with 20% of the vote.

The second round of voting for the remaining 501 constituencies is for candidates who secured more than 12.5% but less than 50% of the vote in the first round.

Historically

The last president to dissolve the National Assembly was Jacques Chirac in 1997. In the ensuing snap election, Chirac’s center-right party was defeated by an alliance of left-wing parties, leading to a political cohabitation with Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin until the end of Chirac’s first mandate. The unexpected call for a snap election took markets by surprise, given that the last one was so long ago, and Macron received significant criticism for this decision.