Market Insights

In-depth insights on market events and major trades

Oil deficit widens as Trump turns to China and Russia gains from higher prices

The oil market is tightening again, and the political pressure around it is becoming harder to ignore. The EIA now expects global inventories to fall by an average of 2.6 million barrels a day in 2026.

ECB moves closer to June hike as oil shock reshapes the inflation debate

The ECB is moving closer to a possible rate hike at its June 11 meeting as the oil shock pushes inflation risks higher.

S&P 500 outlook: Morgan Stanley raises target to 8,300 after earnings crush expectations

Morgan Stanley has turned more constructive on US equities, arguing that a blowout earnings season and a still-resilient economy can keep the rally going. The bank now sees the S&P 500 reaching 8,300 over the next 12 months, as stronger-than-expected corporate profits continue to outweigh geopolitical noise, credit worries and concerns about AI-related disruption.

Inflation leaves Warsh facing a harder Fed test before he even begins

US inflation rose to 3.8% year over year, immediately pushing Treasury yields higher, markets have almost fully priced out Federal Reserve rate cuts for 2026. Odds of a quarter-point rate hike by December have climbed to around 28%.

Silver surges as Peru supply fears collide with rising industrial demand optimism

Silver prices jumped nearly 9% after markets reacted to reports of a severe structural liquidity crisis at a major state-owned oil company in Peru.

US inflation continues to accelerate as energy keeps pressure on the fed

US inflation is expected to rise to 3.7% in April from 3.3% in March as energy prices remain the main driver, keeping pressure on household costs and inflation expectations and Kevin Warsh’s confirmation process comes at a sensitive moment for Fed credibility.

Oil price today: why the physical crude squeeze is easing even with Hormuz still shut

The panic in the physical oil market is fading, at least for now. Cargo premiums that exploded after the Strait of Hormuz disruption have fallen sharply as refiners pull back, run down inventories and hunt for replacement barrels elsewhere. But this is not the same as a return to normal. The market is still living off temporary fixes, and if Hormuz stays effectively closed, the next squeeze may be even harder to absorb

Dollar weakens as hopes for Middle East de-escalation

The US dollar weakened sharply as markets reacted to growing signs that the Middle East conflict may be moving closer to a diplomatic resolution rather than further escalation.

Japan defends the yen as markets bet on a June hike

Japanese authorities intervened in the currency market spending around $34.3 billion to support the weakening yen after it breached 160 per U.S. dollar.

RBA raises rates again as inflation keeps pressure on policymakers

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%, reinforcing the message that policymakers are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with persistent inflation.