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Market Insights
In-depth insights on market events and major trades
The BoJ hits the brakes on rate hikes
Bank of Japan has been navigating the opposite challenge: figuring out when to finally tighten. However, the latest market pricing suggests that the much-anticipated Japanese rate hike cycle is being pushed further down the road. BoJ is buying time. A combination of shifting political headwinds and easing inflation has given policymakers the breathing room to delay their next move.
Hold rates is Bank of Canada most likely path
CPI has been relatively contained for over a year, fluctuating in the 2% to 2.5% range. That stability has helped rebuild confidence, the mid-2025 contraction, when GDP shrank by 0.5% in a single quarter, marked the peak of economic stress following the aggressive rate hikes of 2023.
RBNZ between sticky inflation and weakening labour
New Zealand heads into Wednesday’s Monetary policy statement with a genuine split in expectations around what the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will signal next. The Official Cash Rate sits at 2.25%, and most economists surveyed expect Governor Anna Breman and her committee to leave it unchanged. The bigger debate is not about this week’s decision it is about what comes next.
ECB’s next move in a stagnant economy
Inflation numbers at 1.7% are at its lowest level since September 2024, sliding comfortably below the ECB’s 2.0% target. Today’s final Q4 2025 GDP numbers expectations stay stable by 1.3% year-on-year. Unemployment has just dropped to 6.2%, the lowest rate since October 2024.
Tokyo’s trillion debt is lowering yields
Instead of a "fiscal dove" sell-off. The 10-year Japanese Government Bond yield has retreated to 2.19% a one-month low as the market bets that Takaichi’s supermajority actually provides the political stability needed to manage Japan's gargantuan debt without a total meltdown.
Rising balance sheet, what to expect from Warsh
When President Donald Trump nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to lead the U.S. central bank, markets immediately tried to answer a familiar question: is he a hard-liner inflation hawk, or a closet dove willing to cut rates when growth wobbles?
Fed focus swings back to inflation as jobs data lose urgency
With the US labour market showing tentative signs of stabilization, investors and policymakers are turning their attention back to inflation — and this week’s jobs and price data may determine whether interest-rate cuts are delayed further.
Central bank gold buying cooled in 2025 but stayed far above historical norms
Central bank demand for gold eased last year as higher prices tempered purchases, yet buying levels remained structurally elevated, underscoring gold’s role as a strategic reserve asset amid persistent geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
Apple earnings in focus as memory costs threaten margins
Apple Inc. heads into its earnings report under pressure, with investors increasingly focused on how a sharp and sustained rise in memory prices is eating into margins. The stock has fallen more than 10% from its December peak, making it the weakest performer among the largest US technology companies as concerns mount over cost inflation heading into 2026.
Fed meeting today as Trump says rates will “come down a lot”
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, resisting mounting pressure from the White House as officials weigh stubborn inflation against signs of labour-market stabilization and renewed political scrutiny of the central bank’s independence.
