Daily discussion thread for August 12, 2026

US inflation rate decelerates in line with analysts’ expectations

According to data released by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), the year-on-year (YoY) headline inflation rate decelerated slightly from 3.5% in June to 3.4% in July, matching analysts’ expectations. This deceleration was primarily driven by a moderation in gasoline prices, which eased from 26.7% to 24.6% YoY. On a monthly basis, headline inflation advanced by 0.1%, supported by a 2.9% decline in gasoline prices over the period. Concurrently, core inflation—which excludes volatile energy and unprocessed food components—moderated from 2.6% to 2.5% YoY over the same period.

Consequently, the odds of an interest rate hike fell amid controlled inflation figures and a softer labour market assessment. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market-implied probability of an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting declined to 40%, down from above 50% in previous sessions. Conversely, market participants now assign a 60% probability to the US central bank maintaining its benchmark interest rate at the 3.75% level.

Against this backdrop of potential monetary policy neutrality, US equity benchmarks delivered a mixed performance. The S&P 500 index advanced by 0.26% to 7,748 points, while the Nasdaq 100 index rose by 0.74% to 29,742 points. Conversely, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped marginally by 0.04% to 53,775 points. This divergence highlights a lack of market consensus regarding future monetary policy decisions, which could induce heightened volatility if geopolitical uncertainty persists (pressuring energy prices higher).

Figure 1. US Inflation Rate (2025–2026). Source: Data from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics; Figure obtained from Trading Economics.

EIA crude oil inventories register a significant accumulation above estimates

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a notable accumulation in crude oil inventories in its weekly assessment. Crude stocks rose by 17.422 million barrels, comfortably exceeding market consensus forecasts, which had anticipated a contraction of 1.4 million barrels. This builds the largest single-week inventory accumulation since January 2023, marking a substantial increase.

Nevertheless, despite the significant buildup in crude stocks, oil prices displayed muted movement. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contract (CLU6) rose marginally by 0.12% to $83.29 per barrel. Market participants remain predominantly focused on geopolitical developments, as the US–Iran conflict in the Middle East continues to serve as the primary catalyst for energy commodities. Additionally, escalating tensions between Houthi forces and Saudi Arabia have exacerbated fears of supply disruptions, particularly given reduced traffic through the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait in Yemen.

Figure 2. US Crude Oil Stocks Change (2023–2026). Source: Data from the US Energy Information Administration; Figure obtained from Trading Economics.

Cisco shares fall in post-market session despite exceeding analysts’ forecasts in quarterly report

Cisco Systems posted total revenue and earnings per share (EPS) that exceeded analysts’ expectations in its quarterly earnings report. The technology giant reported revenue of $17.25 billion, topping consensus estimates of $16.82 billion. Adjusted EPS reached $1.22, beating the market forecast of $1.17. These figures represent a year-on-year revenue increase of 17.6% and a 23.2% YoY growth in earnings per share. Furthermore, the company issued stronger-than-expected forward guidance for upcoming quarters.

Nevertheless, Cisco’s shares declined by approximately 4% in extended trading. This market reaction underscores a demanding climate in which investors are rewarding only exceptional corporate outperformance, leaving shares vulnerable to sell-offs regardless of solid underlying financial results.