Daily discussion thread for August 3, 2026

Oil prices decrease amid Trump’s comments of potential US-Iran agreement, although Tehran denies any plan

Oil prices declined following comments from US President Donald Trump regarding a potential agreement to resolve the ongoing Middle East conflict with Iran, despite Iranian officials denying these assertions. According to reports from Reuters, the US President stated that talks with Iran were underway, framing them as a "last chance" to secure a deal. Conversely, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei stated that no negotiations with the US were taking place and that no official meetings had been scheduled.

Following these conflicting statements from US and Iranian officials, the Brent crude futures contract (BRNV6) dropped 4.84% to $83.78 per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contract (CLU6) fell 5.05% to $80.34 per barrel.

These contradictory statements highlight geopolitical uncertainty as the dominant backdrop driving price volatility in energy markets, particularly within crude oil. Official data from Iran suggests that Tehran is currently holding discussions with Oman regarding the management of the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns that energy supply disruptions could persist if the strait remains officially restricted.

US manufacturing PMI advances above expectations

According to data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the US Manufacturing PMI rose from 53.3 in June to 55.6 in July, outperforming consensus forecasts of 54.0. This acceleration extends an upward trend in the indicator to its highest level since May 2022. Analysis from Trading Economics indicates that the improvement was driven by a sharp rise in output from 52.2 to 58.5, alongside robust growth in new orders, which expanded from 56.0 to 56.7. Concurrently, the employment index returned to expansionary territory, rising from 49.7 to 52.8.

Following the release of these economic data, US equity benchmarks rallied strongly. The S&P 500 advanced 1.48% to 7,600 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.32% to close at a record high of 53,183. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 index rose 1.78% to 28,776 points. These daily gains reflected a combination of strong economic fundamentals and renewed optimism that diplomatic efforts might de-escalate the US-Iran conflict.

Figure 1. US ISM Manufacturing PMI (2023–2026). Source: Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM); Figure obtained from Trading Economics.

Quarterly US financial results

The second-quarter 2026 earnings season continues this week. The following key institutions are scheduled to report, which may contribute to further volatility in US equity markets:

Monday

• Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.b)
• Palantir Technologies (PLTR)

Tuesday

• SpaceX (SPCX)
• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
• Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
• Merck & Company (MRK)

Wednesday

• Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
• Walt Disney Company (DIS)
• Uber Technologies (UBER)

Thursday

• Airbnb Inc. (ABNB)

Key economic events this week

Several critical economic indicators are scheduled for release this week, with the following being of particular importance to market participants:

Monday

• US: ISM Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday

• US: JOLTs Job Openings

Wednesday

• US: ISM Services PMI
• US: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

Thursday

• Australia: Balance of Trade

Friday

• China: Balance of Trade
• Germany: Balance of Trade
• US: Non Farm Payrolls
• US: Unemployment Rate
• Canada: Unemployment Rate