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Market Minutes
Read snapshots of the latest market news
JOLTs strength fuels market jitters before Fed meeting
The JOLTs survey showed a recovery in vacancies for September and October, rekindling debate over the Federal Reserve’s path even as market pricing for a December cut remains elevated. The Reserve Bank of Australia held rates at 3.6 per cent and signalled little appetite for further cuts, while German external trade produced mixed readings that underscore broader European stagnation.
Chinese stocks climb on strong exports, trade balance
Chinese equities advanced after a surprise improvement in the trade balance, driven by stronger-than-expected exports to Europe and Asia. Markets elsewhere were mixed: US equities slipped while 10-year Treasury yields rose as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Japan’s economy, by contrast, contracted in Q3, underscoring divergent regional dynamics.
US PCE mixed; markets edge higher amid monetary easing hopes
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index printed mixed results, with headline inflation rising modestly while core PCE eased slightly. Markets responded positively as investors continued to price a high probability of Federal Reserve easing in December, even though economic signals remain uneven. Consumer sentiment improved marginally and Canada reported a notable fall in unemployment, supporting the Canadian dollar.
US jobless claims fall, but easing outlook stays unchanged
Initial US jobless claims fell to a three-year low, signalling intermittent strength in the labour market, yet the market’s priced outlook for Federal Reserve easing remains effectively unchanged. Oil and gas markets responded to geopolitical developments and demand expectations. Investors are awaiting upcoming Fed guidance before materially altering policy expectations.
Fed rate-cut odds climb on softer-than-expected ADP data
Private payroll data from ADP surprised to the downside in November, registering a contraction that reinforced markets’ expectations of Federal Reserve easing. The ISM services PMI, by contrast, showed continued resilience in the US services sector. Outside the US, Australia’s GDP decelerated in Q3, while US crude inventories recorded a modest build.
EU inflation tick lifts euro as BoE, OECD warn of risks
The euro registered a modest gain after European Union inflation accelerated slightly more than expected. At the same time, the Bank of England and the OECD issued warnings about financial-stability risks stemming from elevated valuations in AI-linked equities and broader trade-policy uncertainty.
Supply fears lift oil; US, China PMIs decline
Brent and WTI futures rose modestly as supply concerns stemming from geopolitical incidents in Russia and Venezuela offset OPEC+’s decision to maintain its first-quarter 2026 production target. At the same time, recent purchasing-managers’ indices signalled cooling manufacturing activity in both China and the United States, adding to the sense of a fragile global demand backdrop.
Japan data beats but yen still stalls as dollar heads for worst week since mid-year
Stronger Japanese industrial output and retail sales failed to lift the yen, as inflation remains skewed to food and markets keep betting on a December Fed cut. The dollar is set for its weakest week since mid-year, with risk assets in charge and policy clarity still a few key data prints away.
Dollar slips as Fed-cut bets firm and BoJ flags gradual hikes
The dollar stayed soft as markets price another Fed cut before year-end, even as a cautious BoJ signals room for gradual tightening and the ECB warns core inflation needs more cooling. U.S. equities firmed and 10-year yields dipped below 4%, reinforcing pressure on the greenback.
Risk-on tone builds in Asia as December Fed cut bets firm
Dovish Fed pricing kept risk assets bid in Asia, powering NZD and AUD while the yen stayed soft despite chatter of a near-term BoJ move. Focus now swings to the UK Autumn Budget.