Market Minutes

Read snapshots of the latest market news

US jobless claims fall, but easing outlook stays unchanged

Initial US jobless claims fell to a three-year low, signalling intermittent strength in the labour market, yet the market’s priced outlook for Federal Reserve easing remains effectively unchanged. Oil and gas markets responded to geopolitical developments and demand expectations. Investors are awaiting upcoming Fed guidance before materially altering policy expectations.

Fed rate-cut odds climb on softer-than-expected ADP data

Private payroll data from ADP surprised to the downside in November, registering a contraction that reinforced markets’ expectations of Federal Reserve easing. The ISM services PMI, by contrast, showed continued resilience in the US services sector. Outside the US, Australia’s GDP decelerated in Q3, while US crude inventories recorded a modest build.

EU inflation tick lifts euro as BoE, OECD warn of risks

The euro registered a modest gain after European Union inflation accelerated slightly more than expected. At the same time, the Bank of England and the OECD issued warnings about financial-stability risks stemming from elevated valuations in AI-linked equities and broader trade-policy uncertainty.

Supply fears lift oil; US, China PMIs decline

Brent and WTI futures rose modestly as supply concerns stemming from geopolitical incidents in Russia and Venezuela offset OPEC+’s decision to maintain its first-quarter 2026 production target. At the same time, recent purchasing-managers’ indices signalled cooling manufacturing activity in both China and the United States, adding to the sense of a fragile global demand backdrop.

Japan data beats but yen still stalls as dollar heads for worst week since mid-year

Stronger Japanese industrial output and retail sales failed to lift the yen, as inflation remains skewed to food and markets keep betting on a December Fed cut. The dollar is set for its weakest week since mid-year, with risk assets in charge and policy clarity still a few key data prints away.

Dollar slips as Fed-cut bets firm and BoJ flags gradual hikes

The dollar stayed soft as markets price another Fed cut before year-end, even as a cautious BoJ signals room for gradual tightening and the ECB warns core inflation needs more cooling. U.S. equities firmed and 10-year yields dipped below 4%, reinforcing pressure on the greenback.

Risk-on tone builds in Asia as December Fed cut bets firm

Dovish Fed pricing kept risk assets bid in Asia, powering NZD and AUD while the yen stayed soft despite chatter of a near-term BoJ move. Focus now swings to the UK Autumn Budget.

December cut mostly priced; markets look to delayed U.S. data for confirmation

With a December Fed cut largely in the price, equities, bonds, and bullion have firmed while the dollar cools only at the margins. The next test is today’s catch-up prints—retail sales and PPI—unlikely to move the needle unless they deliver a genuine surprise.

Yen slips back into weakness ahead of UK budget test and RBNZ’s expected cut

A quiet Asia session left the yen’s late-week bounce without follow-through, as BoJ delay bets, UK fiscal risk, an RBNZ cut, and a heavy US data backlog shaped the week’s opening tone.

US markets recover amid uncertainty about inflation data

US equity markets staged a sizeable intraday recovery despite the Bureau of Labor Statistics announcing that October’s consumer-price index will not be published and that November’s CPI release will be delayed. The data gap increases uncertainty for the Federal Reserve ahead of its policy decision, prompting markets to place greater weight on private indicators.