Market Minutes

Read snapshots of the latest market news

PCE in line with forecasts; gold and oil prices rise

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data arrived in line with analysts’ expectations, albeit with a slight acceleration in the headline measure. Although the release contained no major surprises, it suggests the tariff impact on prices is not yet visible in the data. In response, the dollar eased modestly, gold rose, and US equity indices appreciated into the close.

US GDP and employment improve amid market adjustment

US equity markets declined on renewed doubts about the viability of further Fed cuts. Weekly jobless-benefit data fell, monthly durable-goods orders surprised to the upside, and the latest Q2 GDP revision beat expectations—all of which underscore the strength of the US economy.

US home sales beat forecasts, Fed tone moves markets

New home sales in the US surprised to the upside, reaching a three-year high. The print may reflect the recent decline in long-term reference rates, although many analysts regard it as a one-off outlier that is likely to normalise in coming months. Meanwhile, equity markets closed lower amid the Fed’s cautious tone and heightened uncertainty.

Powell cites tough economy and high market valuation

The Chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed) stated that the FOMC sees a minimal but present risk of stagflation in the US economy and will not pre-commit to further cuts without supporting data. When questioned about financial stability, he added that the Fed does not perceive systemic risks, though asset valuations are considered elevated.

Trump increases visa fees as Nvidia invests in OpenAI

US equity markets closed higher despite the announcement of a new fee on H-1B visas introduced by US President Donald Trump. While higher application costs imply a headwind for US companies that recruit highly skilled foreign workers, the overall impact is likely to be contained. Meanwhile, Nvidia announced a substantial investment in OpenAI.

BoJ kept rates unchanged and announced asset divestment

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged but announced a significant divestment of risk assets. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index fell, while 10-year government-bond yields rose. Meanwhile, global equity markets were mixed as the initial lift from the Fed’s tone faded.

The BoE kept its interest rates unchanged; sterling weakens

The Bank of England (BoE) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4%, while slowing the pace of its quantitative tightening (QT) programme. Meanwhile, equity markets advanced across the board following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to cut interest rates.

Fed lowered interest rates; markets react mixed

The Federal Reserve decided to lower its interest rates by 25 basis points. The central bank’s economic estimates showed improvements in expected economic growth, while employment and inflation estimates for the end of 2025 remained unchanged. Stock markets in the US reacted mixed, while the Dollar Index closed up 0.4%.

Central banks in focus; diverging currency trends emerge

During the week, monetary policy decisions by several major central banks will be announced. On Wednesday, September 17, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada will present their benchmark rate decisions. Meanwhile, on Thursday 18 and Friday 19 it will be the turn of the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, respectively.

PPI slows, Fed cut odds rise; gold up

U.S. producer prices undershot expectations, reinforcing signals of cooling demand amid increasingly fragile labor data. Rate-cut odds for September rose, 2-year yields eased, the dollar was mixed, and gold hovered near record highs.