Market Minutes

Read snapshots of the latest market news

Fed rate-cut odds climb on softer-than-expected ADP data

Private payroll data from ADP surprised to the downside in November, registering a contraction that reinforced markets’ expectations of Federal Reserve easing. The ISM services PMI, by contrast, showed continued resilience in the US services sector. Outside the US, Australia’s GDP decelerated in Q3, while US crude inventories recorded a modest build.

EU inflation tick lifts euro as BoE, OECD warn of risks

The euro registered a modest gain after European Union inflation accelerated slightly more than expected. At the same time, the Bank of England and the OECD issued warnings about financial-stability risks stemming from elevated valuations in AI-linked equities and broader trade-policy uncertainty.

Supply fears lift oil; US, China PMIs decline

Brent and WTI futures rose modestly as supply concerns stemming from geopolitical incidents in Russia and Venezuela offset OPEC+’s decision to maintain its first-quarter 2026 production target. At the same time, recent purchasing-managers’ indices signalled cooling manufacturing activity in both China and the United States, adding to the sense of a fragile global demand backdrop.

Japan data beats but yen still stalls as dollar heads for worst week since mid-year

Stronger Japanese industrial output and retail sales failed to lift the yen, as inflation remains skewed to food and markets keep betting on a December Fed cut. The dollar is set for its weakest week since mid-year, with risk assets in charge and policy clarity still a few key data prints away.

Dollar slips as Fed-cut bets firm and BoJ flags gradual hikes

The dollar stayed soft as markets price another Fed cut before year-end, even as a cautious BoJ signals room for gradual tightening and the ECB warns core inflation needs more cooling. U.S. equities firmed and 10-year yields dipped below 4%, reinforcing pressure on the greenback.

Risk-on tone builds in Asia as December Fed cut bets firm

Dovish Fed pricing kept risk assets bid in Asia, powering NZD and AUD while the yen stayed soft despite chatter of a near-term BoJ move. Focus now swings to the UK Autumn Budget.

December cut mostly priced; markets look to delayed U.S. data for confirmation

With a December Fed cut largely in the price, equities, bonds, and bullion have firmed while the dollar cools only at the margins. The next test is today’s catch-up prints—retail sales and PPI—unlikely to move the needle unless they deliver a genuine surprise.

Nvidia outperforms in Q3; US jobs data

Nvidia reported third-quarter results that comfortably exceeded market expectations for both revenue and earnings per share, reinforcing its leadership in semiconductors and AI compute. At the same time, revised US labour-market data for September were mixed: non-farm payrolls were revised higher, yet the unemployment rate rose above consensus.

Fed minutes reveal splits; odds of rate cuts decline

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee revealed a clear division among policymakers, prompting markets to scale back expectations of near-term easing and driving a notable appreciation of the dollar. At the same time, consumer-price inflation in the United Kingdom and euro-area slowed modestly, and oil prices fell despite a larger-than-expected weekly drop in US crude inventories.

Euro stocks fall on policy and valuation uncertainty

European equity markets retreated as investors digested renewed uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy path and lingering concerns about stretched valuations in the technology sector. Softer-than-expected US jobless-claims data reinforced caution, prompting a modest bid for gold as a hedge against policy-driven volatility.