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Market Minutes
Read snapshots of the latest market news
US personal income falls, GDP revised down—yet stocks continue to rise
US equity markets advanced in tandem following renewed optimism regarding a potential resolution to Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions. This rally persisted despite lacklustre economic data, including a contraction in personal income and a downward revision of fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures.
US–Iran ceasefire lifts global markets, sends oil prices tumbling
A potential ceasefire negotiated between the United States and Iran has bolstered global equity markets, as investors price in the possibility of a more accommodative monetary stance from central banks should inflationary risks remain contained. Concurrently, crude oil prices have retreated sharply amid renewed optimism regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and higher-than-anticipated US crude inventories.
Trump ultimatum hits stocks; US durable goods down, Canada PMI contracts
Western equity markets are under significant pressure as the deadline for President Trump’s ultimatum to Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz approaches. Concurrently, US durable goods orders retreated in February amidst broader economic instability, while Canada’s Ivey PMI slumped into contractionary territory, driven by escalating energy costs and persistent supply chain disruptions.
Fed and ECB officials highlight inflation risks; WTI gains on demand strength
Central bankers from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are increasingly prioritising inflationary risks over employment concerns as energy prices surge amidst escalating Middle East tensions. Simultaneously, the energy market is witnessing an anomalous shift, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading at a premium over Brent, driven by robust demand from European and Asian refineries seeking stable US crude supplies.
Oil shock, central bank caution, and a shift in expectations
Today’s market tone was shaped by one dominant energy force. Oil surged aggressively, jumping nearly 17% in a single session and pushing toward the $113 level, Comments from John Williams highlight the dilemma central banks are now facing again. Higher energy prices don’t just push inflation higher they also slow growth. That combination is one of the most difficult environments for monetary policy.
US retail sales, manufacturing PMI, and ADP beat forecasts as stocks climb
US equity indices advanced in tandem following a series of robust economic data releases. Retail sales growth accelerated, the ISM Manufacturing PMI reached its highest level since August 2022, and the ADP employment report surpassed analyst consensus. Despite these gains, market participants remain cautious regarding the potential inflationary impact of a sharp spike in energy prices.
Europe inflation jumps, China PMI expands, US job openings decline
March data highlights a diverging global landscape: while European headline inflation surged to 2.5%, fuelled by energy price volatility, the US labour market continued its multi-year cooling trend with a notable dip in job vacancies. Amidst these shifts, China’s manufacturing sector returned to expansionary territory, offering a signal of industrial recovery for an economy long hampered by sluggish domestic demand.
BoJ on watch for yen action; German inflation heats up
Officials from the Japanese Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have indicated that direct currency intervention and further interest rate hikes may be required to mitigate intensifying inflationary risks. Concurrently, the German inflation rate surged in March, driven by a significant escalation in energy prices.
US stocks retreat sharply while gold and oil gain on geopolitical concerns
US equity markets experienced a sharp contraction as the tripartite conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran persisted. Market participants are increasingly pricing in a more restrictive monetary stance from the Federal Reserve, weighing heavily on risk assets. Conversely, oil prices continued their ascent, while gold benefited from potential safe-haven inflows amidst the heightened global instability.
Geopolitical pressures weigh on equities and gold as energy prices rise
Global equity markets retreated in unison as diplomatic hopes for a resolution to the US-Israel-Iran conflict continued to fade. While systemic uncertainty usually supports precious metals, gold prices have depreciated significantly alongside stocks. Conversely, energy markets have seen a sharp appreciation as participants price in possible prolonged supply chain disruptions across the Middle East.