Market Minutes

Read snapshots of the latest market news

Global stocks drop on geopolitical tensions; Fed may turn more restrictive

Global equity markets have retreated sharply amid escalating inflation risks and the potential for a broader economic impact resulting from the intensifying US-Israel-Iran conflict. Concurrently, the CME FedWatch Tool is signalling a significant shift in market expectations regarding future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, where participants now pricing out previous forecasts for rate cuts.

BoJ, BoE, ECB hold rates; Energy prices volatile amid geopolitical uncertainty

The central banks of Japan, the United Kingdom, and the Eurozone maintained their current interest rates following their respective monetary policy meetings, though all three cautioned that resurgent energy prices could exert renewed upward pressure on inflation. Simultaneously, crude oil benchmarks experienced a highly volatile session following a significant escalation in the US–Israel–Iran conflict.

Fed holds rates as energy prices fuel inflation uncertainty; Stocks slide

The Federal Reserve has elected to maintain its benchmark interest rate, aligning with market expectations. However, the central bank underscored heightened uncertainty stemming from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. US equity markets retreated in unison amid mounting concerns that persistent geopolitical tensions could exacerbate inflationary pressures.

RBA tightens policy on inflation fears; Oil surges as tensions persist

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has elected to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, suggesting that global central banks are facing significant inflationary pressures following a sharp rise in energy prices, driven by instability in the Middle East. Market participants are now closely monitoring a series of upcoming monetary policy decisions from major Western central banks scheduled for this week.

US stocks drop on weak GDP revision and geopolitical uncertainty

US equity markets retreated in tandem following lacklustre economic data—specifically the second revision of GDP and durable goods orders—and mounting concerns of a potential inflationary rebound driven by a sharp escalation in energy prices.

Brent above $100 as geopolitical tensions rise; Global stocks retreat

The primary oil benchmarks, Brent and WTI, have surged to their highest levels since August 2022, driven by mounting fears of severe energy supply disruptions that threaten global economic stability. Concurrently, global equity markets have retreated in unison as investors price in the risks of a renewed inflationary surge.

Energy prices rise as supply worries intensify; IEA considers strategic oil release

Energy prices have experienced a renewed upward impulse driven by escalating concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East. Despite a higher-than-expected accumulation in US inventories and a landmark agreement by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to release 400 million barrels of crude, oil prices continued to appreciate as geopolitical risk premiums outweighed bearish fundamental data.

Europe stocks rebound on hopes of Middle East de-escalation

The conflict in the Middle East has experienced a momentary de-escalation, leading to a potential normalisation of energy prices. Consequently, European equity markets closed with significant recoveries, while major crude oil benchmarks recorded substantial depreciations. Concurrently, Chinese trade data for February significantly exceeded market expectations, signalling a robust reconfiguration of international trade flows.

Middle East geopolitical tensions trigger sharp volatility in oil markets

Crude oil markets are experiencing heightened volatility as the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran continues to inject significant uncertainty into the Middle East. Consequently, supply-side disruptions and logistical bottlenecks have forced prices toward multi-year highs.

Oil tops $90 as risk premium rises; US jobs show weakness

Crude oil prices have surged to multi-year highs driven by escalating geopolitical volatility in the Middle East. The near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz is severely disrupting energy supply chains, mainly impacting crude exports to Asian markets. Concurrently, US labour market data has exhibited significant weakness, casting doubt on the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming monetary policy trajectory.