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Quiet Monday, dynamic week
Gold is trading within a tight range near recent record highs amid ongoing concerns over U.S. trade tariffs and persistent inflation
New Zealand’s Q4 retail sales jumped 0.9%
The EUR/USD pair remains near 1.050
West Texas Intermediate crude is around $70
Asia-Pacific Update
New Zealand’s Q4 2024 retail sales outpaced expectations, rising by 0.9% compared to the forecasted 0.5%, reversing a slight decline of 0.1% from the previous period. This upbeat performance adds a positive note to the broader economic landscape in the region.
Economic Calendar & European Data
Monday features a relatively sparse lineup of economic indicators compared to the heavy schedule of inflation, GDP, and sentiment reports expected later in the week. Following Germany’s surprise Bundestag elections, attention turns to the upcoming IFO survey, which will gauge both the current economic climate and business expectations in Germany. Additionally, the final consumer inflation (HICP) figure for the Eurozone is set to be released, potentially stirring volatility in the forex market.
Currencies
In European trading, the EUR/USD pair is holding near 1.0500. This strength comes in the wake of the German Conservatives’ electoral victory, which has reignited optimism regarding the country’s economic prospects—even though a generally cautious market sentiment is limiting further gains. The forthcoming German IFO data remains a key focus for traders monitoring the pair.
Commodities
Gold (XAU/USD) is continuing its sideways consolidation early in the European session, confined within a multi-day trading range. Despite nearing record highs set last week amid uncertainty over U.S. trade tariffs and broader global economic risks, the metal’s appeal is being tempered. The market is pricing in that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for an extended period due to persistent inflationary pressures, which discourages new bullish positions. As a result, many investors are holding off until the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index— the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge— is released on Friday, expecting it to offer clearer guidance on future monetary policy and the USD’s trajectory.
Energy
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is trading around the $70 mark. However, there are concerns about potential downward pressure on prices as exports from Kurdistan’s oilfields are expected to resume. Iraq’s Oil Ministry has announced plans to ramp up exports via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline by 185,000 barrels per day, a development that could impact supply dynamics in the near term.
