Anthropic $2 trillion IPO bet puts SpaceX record at risk

Anthropic revenue growth is changing the IPO debate

The biggest reason investors are taking the IPO seriously is simple: revenue is growing extremely quickly. Anthropic ended 2025 with an annualized revenue run rate of roughly $9 billion. By May, that figure had reached $47 billion. By the end of July, it had moved above $65 billion.

That is an extraordinary increase in a very short period

But the latest numbers also show why investors need to look beyond the headline growth rate. Revenue growth slowed during the summer. Reuters reported that the monthly growth rate had moderated to about 38% by July, after much faster increases earlier in the year.

That does not mean Anthropic's growth story is breaking down. It means the company is moving into a much larger revenue base, where maintaining the same percentage growth becomes increasingly difficult.

Source: Bloomberg

Why $2 trillion is such a big number

Anthropic's last reported private valuation was around $965 billion, following its $65 billion Series H financing round. A $2 trillion IPO would therefore represent more than a doubling of its private-market valuation in a relatively short period.

The valuation would also put enormous pressure on the company's future growth

At $65 billions of annualized revenue, a $2 trillion valuation would represent roughly 31 times annualized revenue. If revenue reaches $100 billion, the multiple will fall to about 20 times.

Those numbers help explain what public-market investors will eventually have to decide

The question will not simply be whether Claude is growing quickly. It will be whether Anthropic can continue increasing revenue fast enough to justify paying a very high multiple for that future growth. That is a much harder test once the company is trading every day in public markets.

SpaceX now has a serious challenger

SpaceX had looked difficult to beat after its record-setting June IPO. But prediction markets have changed noticeably in recent weeks. At the start of August, SpaceX was overwhelmingly favored to finish 2026 with the largest IPO by market capitalization. That lead has narrowed sharply.

On 30 July Polymarket puts the probability of 88% for SpaceX, however, today puts the probability at roughly 55% for SpaceX and 44% for Anthropic. The numbers should not be treated as a forecast of where either company will trade. They simply show how quickly investor expectations can change when new information about Anthropic's revenue and IPO plans emerge.

Source: Polymarket

The banks are already preparing for a very large deal

Another sign that the IPO process is becoming more serious is the financing work taking place before the listing.

Anthropic is reportedly negotiating a revolving credit facility that could exceed its original $10 billion target. Reuters reported that major banks are competing for allocations because participation in the credit facility could strengthen their position in the eventual IPO. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are among the banks involved in discussions around the IPO and financing arrangements. Reports indicate that Anthropic has asked top-tier banks to commit around $1.25 billion each, with other lenders being considered for smaller allocations.

That does not mean Anthropic needs the money to keep the business running

The more important point is that the company is building a substantial financial cushion ahead of a potential public listing while banks are positioning themselves for what could become one of the largest technology IPOs in history.

The S-1 is the next major milestone

Anthropic has already taken the most important formal step toward going public. On June 1, the company confirmed that it had confidentially submitted a draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC. Anthropic said at the time that the filing gives it the option to go public after the SEC completes its review, while emphasizing that the timing would depend on market conditions and other factors.

The timing remains unconfirmed

That distinction is important because the S-1 has not yet become public. Until investors can see the company's full financial statements, expenses, cash position, margins, customer concentration and other disclosures, much of the valuation discussion remains based on reported revenue figures and private-market expectations.

The real test will be margins, not just revenue

Anthropic's rapid revenue growth is impressive, but AI companies have a cost structure that investors cannot ignore. Running advanced models requires enormous amounts of computing power. That means higher revenue does not automatically translate into strong free cash flow.

This is where the IPO could become a much more interesting test of the AI boom

Investors have spent the past several years rewarding companies that are building the infrastructure needed for artificial intelligence. Anthropic represents another side of that equation: the company selling the AI products and services.

If revenue continues climbing while computing costs become more efficient, a very high valuation becomes easier to defend. If revenue growth slows while infrastructure costs remain heavy, investors could become much less comfortable with a $2 trillion price tag.