Euro's fourth consecutive losses against USD

Renewed concerns over Euro-US interest rate gap

By Raed Alkhedr | @raedalkhedr | 3 August 2023

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  • The Euro declined by 2.7% from the peak it reached in mid-July at 1.1275

  • Lagarde stated that the decision to raise or maintain interest rates on the Euro depends on economic data

  • Despite the Euro's decline against the US Dollar, it is still moving within an upward channel

The economic data and events affecting the Euro

The Euro has witnessed a noticeable decline against most major currencies, continuing a series of losses against the US Dollar for the fourth consecutive session. These declines come amid renewed concerns about the widening gap in interest rates between Europe and the United States, following the reduced likelihood of the European Central Bank raising interest rates during its meeting next month, while expectations increase for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points due to the continuing strong economic data in the United States.

Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank, stated that it is possible to raise interest rates or halt the increases in the September meeting, depending on economic data. Lagarde added that the economic data in the Eurozone will guide us on what to do in the coming period, whether in the next meeting or thereafter.

Regarding trading, the Euro started the day with a decline against the US Dollar, with the pair trading near the 1.0938 level.

Key technical and pivotal levels that may affect the movements of the EUR/USD

After the EUR/USD pair successfully rose to the level of 1.1275, representing the upper limit of the upward channel on the daily timeframe, it failed to surpass this level and has since been continuously declining, now trading around the 1.0930 level. It is likely that the decline could extend to test the support level of 1.0850, and if it breaks this level, the decline may further extend to test the lower limit of the upward channel around 1.0700.

On the other hand, if the pair manages to rise above the level of 1.0980, this may contribute to a further rise, testing the resistance levels of 1.1050, and if surpassed, the rise may extend to the level of 1.1100.

8-3-2023 Gold