Oil prices fall on demand worries

There has been a 6.80% decrease in oil since the start of this week

By Raed Alkhedr | @raedalkhedr | 25 October 2023

  • The decline in oil is influenced by a reduction in business activity in the Eurozone.

  • The International Energy Agency predicts that fuel demand will reach its peak by 2030.

  • Investors fear that escalating geopolitical tensions may in turn lead to market disruptions and supply disruptions in the oil industry.

The following are the major economic events that have influenced oil movements:

For the third consecutive session, oil prices have recorded a significant decline. This came after economic data revealed the negative performance of key sectors in Germany, the Eurozone, and England, which has reignited concerns about demand. German data suggests that the country is facing a wave of recession, while British companies have reported another decrease in activity this month, highlighting the risk of a downturn prior to the Bank of England's interest rate decision next week. Additionally, business activity in the Eurozone took an unexpected turn for the worse this month.

Furthermore, the International Energy Agency predicts that fuel demand will reach its peak by 2030 based on current government policies.

Market focus is also on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as investors fear the escalation of conflicts, which could disrupt oil markets and hinder supplies.

Market attention today is directed towards the remarks of Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Additionally, this week, markets are eagerly awaiting the release of important economic data in the United States, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator.

WTI crude oil started the third session of the week with a limited decline, trading near the $83.40 per barrel level.

Key pivot and technical levels that could impact oil movements:

Oil has declined since the beginning of this week from the $87.60 level, and it is currently trading around $83.40 after breaking the support level at $85.00.

It is likely that the decline will continue to test the support level at $80.50. If this level holds as support, there could be a potential rebound to test the $85.00 level again. A breakthrough above that level could result in further upward movement, testing the resistance level at $89.00.

However, if oil continues to decline and breaks below the $80.50 support level, this could exert additional pressure, causing oil prices to drop further and test the $78.00 support level.

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