Behind closed doors: EU explores ECB successor options amid Lagarde rumors

European governments are reassessing the timing of the leadership transition at the European Central Bank, amid mounting political uncertainty in France and renewed speculation that President Christine Lagarde could step down before her term ends in October 2027.

Under normal circumstances, a successor would be chosen in the summer preceding the end of her mandate. Yet the looming French presidential election in April 2027 — where far-right figures such as Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella are polling strongly — has prompted quiet discussions in European capitals about whether to move sooner.

The debate intensified following a report that Lagarde may consider leaving before her eight-year term concludes. According to the Financial Times, she would prefer to exit ahead of the French vote, potentially allowing President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz to coordinate on her replacement.

An ECB spokesperson has denied that any decision has been taken, stating Lagarde remains focused on completing her mandate.

Political clock meets institutional choreography

The succession question is unusually sensitive because of the broader political calendar. France’s election begins in April 2027, just months before Lagarde’s scheduled departure. At the same time, other senior ECB roles are also set to turn over.

Chief Economist Philip Lane is due to leave in May 2027, while Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel completes her term later that year. The resignation of Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau has already handed Macron the opportunity to appoint a replacement before 2027.

With multiple vacancies converging, some policymakers have floated the idea of bundling the appointments into a single negotiated package. Such an approach could settle half of the ECB’s top echelon at once, minimizing the risk that domestic political shifts — particularly in France — spill into monetary governance.

There is no formal calendar governing ECB presidential appointments. Lagarde’s own selection in 2019, like that of her predecessor Mario Draghi, was part of a broader package deal on senior EU posts agreed months before the transition.

Far-right momentum shapes timing calculus

The rise of France’s National Rally has sharpened concerns among euro-area officials. While Le Pen has distanced herself from earlier calls to exit the euro, the party has criticized ECB policy and previously advocated a return to aggressive quantitative easing. Bardella has suggested the central bank should do more to ease France’s debt burden — rhetoric that unsettles policymakers wary of political pressure on monetary independence.

The experience in the United States, where leadership tensions at the Federal Reserve have unsettled markets, forms part of the backdrop. European officials are keen to avoid similar uncertainty at a time of fragile growth and lingering inflation pressures.

Still, there is no consensus on accelerating the timetable. Some member states argue that reopening negotiations too early risks triggering complex bargaining among capitals, where geography, political alignment and institutional balance are tightly intertwined.

Austria’s finance minister has publicly backed maintaining the standard timeline, while Germany has signaled it sees no reason to deviate from established procedures.

Front-runners and strategic balance

Several names are circulating as potential successors. Former Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot is widely viewed by economists as a leading contender. Others frequently mentioned include Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel and Bank for International Settlements head Pablo Hernandez de Cos.

Spain has signaled it is prepared should the timetable be accelerated, highlighting its desire to secure influence within the ECB’s executive board when vacancies open.

A package agreement covering the presidency, chief economist post and potentially additional board seats could reassure larger euro-area economies that representation remains balanced, while pre-empting the political risk associated with a French election upset.

Early departure: catalyst or speculation?

Lagarde has repeatedly dismissed suggestions she might leave early, describing herself as “not a quitter” and emphasizing her determination to complete her term. Yet speculation has resurfaced several times, including last year when reports linked her to other international roles.

Even absent a confirmed departure, the possibility alone has sharpened focus on succession planning. If Lagarde were to resign before 2027, leaders could be forced to act sooner than expected, compressing negotiations that would otherwise unfold over many months.

For now, officials publicly describe the debate as premature. Privately, however, the intersection of electoral risk, institutional independence and leadership turnover has transformed the ECB succession into a strategic question for Europe’s political leadership.

Whether governments adhere to tradition or move ahead of schedule, the decision will help shape euro-area monetary policy at a delicate juncture — with growth subdued, inflation not fully extinguished and political fragmentation across the continent deepening.