Global Macro Analysis

The latest financial, market & economic analysis

Oil has repriced but the risk hasn’t gone away

Oil’s outlook has shifted from extreme supply panic to cautious stabilisation. The peak crisis premium has eased, but the market is still likely to trade with a structurally higher risk floor, reflecting the fragility of the ceasefire, constrained supply flexibility and the enduring strategic vulnerability of Hormuz.

The Fed is stuck between inflation risk and slowing growth

The Federal Reserve enters Q2 facing a familiar challenge in a more complex form. Markets have reacted quickly, but for policymakers, the real question is what comes next. An energy-driven shock has hit as inflation was easing but not yet under control, while growth is slowing but not breaking. That leaves the Fed with little room for error, making patience the most likely path.

Europe’s recovery is being tested again

Europe’s recovery was starting to take hold, but the environment has shifted again. A new external shock is feeding through energy markets and trade, just as growth remains fragile. The result is a more complex outlook, where inflation risks are rising and policy choices are becoming harder.

How many more inflation shocks can the Fed afford to look through?

The Federal Reserve has spent years arguing that inflation spikes tied to supply shocks should not automatically trigger a policy response. That logic still holds, at least for now. But after yet another surge in consumer prices — this time driven by the Iran-linked energy shock — the harder question is no longer whether the Fed should react immediately, but how many more “temporary” shocks households and businesses will tolerate before they stop believing inflation will ever return to 2%.

Japan inflation risks rise as war and policy collide

Japan is once again being pulled into a familiar problem rising inflation driven by forces largely outside its control. The shift is already visible in markets. Japanese government bond yields have climbed to their highest levels since 1999, signaling not just rising inflation expectations but also a lack of natural buyers at current levels.

6 Apr 2026, 09:24

A year after "Liberation Day", global trade looks bruised - not broken

One year after President Donald Trump unveiled his so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs, the feared collapse in global trade has not materialized. The shock was real, but the actual economic damage proved smaller than many expected, thanks to exemptions, delayed implementation, trade deals and a global supply chain that adapted faster than the headlines suggested.

2 Apr 2026, 08:50

Oil market between options market and supply concerns

Brent crude closed yesterday at $103.76 per barrel, up 5.42% in a single day and a staggering 47.88% over the past month. With Middle East tensions, Russian supply disruptions, and record options positioning, the market is grappling with risks that could easily push prices into uncharted territory. Here’s a deeper look at the forces at play.

27 Mar 2026, 11:41

Fed faces a new test as war and oil reshape the rates expectations

The Federal Reserve is entering a far more complicated phase of its policy cycle. What once looked like a gradual move toward rate cuts has shifted into a wait-and-see stance, as rising oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions begin to reshape inflation expectations.

25 Mar 2026, 10:01

Could geopolitical tensions in the Middle East delay the path of rate cuts?

The Federal Reserve heads into this week’s meeting facing a more complicated policy backdrop, as the conflict in the Middle East revives inflation risks and forces markets to rethink the path for US interest rates. What had been a debate over when cuts might begin is increasingly turning into a tougher question: whether the Fed will be able to cut at all this year.

17 Mar 2026, 09:33

ECB rate hike bets move closer as inflation risks are rising again

The European Central Bank is facing a renewed inflation test as the Iran war pushes energy markets back into focus and revives memories of the region’s 2022 price shock. Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said a policy response may be closer than investors assume, while President Christine Lagarde stressed the ECB will not allow the latest conflict to trigger another damaging inflation spiral across the euro zone.

11 Mar 2026, 09:14