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In-depth insights on market events and major trades
Japan inflation pressure puts Takaichi and the BOJ on opposite sides
Japan is moving into a more uncomfortable policy phase. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is preparing extra fiscal support to soften the hit from rising fuel and electricity costs, while producer inflation is accelerating fast enough to put new pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. The problem is that both sides are responding to the same shock in very different ways.
US treasury yields near 2007 highs as investors debate whether bonds are finally worth buying
Long-dated US Treasury yields are back near levels last seen before the global financial crisis, forcing investors into an uncomfortable choice. Some see a rare opportunity to lock in yields above 5%, while others argue the selloff is not finished and that inflation, deficits and policy uncertainty could still push long-end rates even higher.
EUR/USD caught between a hawkish Fed and a less comfortable ECB
EUR/USD is moving into a more complicated macro phase as inflation risk returns on both sides. Several Fed officials have stressed that price stability remains the priority.
Yen’s sudden jumps stir talk of quiet intervention from Tokyo
The yen has started making abrupt, short-lived jumps against the dollar, and traders are paying close attention. The moves have revived speculation that Japanese authorities may be back in the market — not with the kind of large, headline-grabbing intervention seen before, but with smaller, quieter operations meant to warn investors that Tokyo is still watching and still willing to act.
Oil deficit widens as Trump turns to China and Russia gains from higher prices
The oil market is tightening again, and the political pressure around it is becoming harder to ignore. The EIA now expects global inventories to fall by an average of 2.6 million barrels a day in 2026.
ECB moves closer to June hike as oil shock reshapes the inflation debate
The ECB is moving closer to a possible rate hike at its June 11 meeting as the oil shock pushes inflation risks higher.
S&P 500 outlook: Morgan Stanley raises target to 8,300 after earnings crush expectations
Morgan Stanley has turned more constructive on US equities, arguing that a blowout earnings season and a still-resilient economy can keep the rally going. The bank now sees the S&P 500 reaching 8,300 over the next 12 months, as stronger-than-expected corporate profits continue to outweigh geopolitical noise, credit worries and concerns about AI-related disruption.
Inflation leaves Warsh facing a harder Fed test before he even begins
US inflation rose to 3.8% year over year, immediately pushing Treasury yields higher, markets have almost fully priced out Federal Reserve rate cuts for 2026. Odds of a quarter-point rate hike by December have climbed to around 28%.
Silver surges as Peru supply fears collide with rising industrial demand optimism
Silver prices jumped nearly 9% after markets reacted to reports of a severe structural liquidity crisis at a major state-owned oil company in Peru.
US inflation continues to accelerate as energy keeps pressure on the fed
US inflation is expected to rise to 3.7% in April from 3.3% in March as energy prices remain the main driver, keeping pressure on household costs and inflation expectations and Kevin Warsh’s confirmation process comes at a sensitive moment for Fed credibility.
