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In-depth insights on market events and major trades
Fed rate-hike returns as Logan questions whether policy is tight enough
The Federal Reserve debate is starting to shift again. For months, markets were mainly focused on when the next rate cut might arrive. Now, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan is warning that the current policy rate may not be doing enough to restrain inflation
BoE faces a harder June decision as inflation risks return
The Bank of England is moving into its June 18 meeting with a much less comfortable inflation story than it had hoped for. UK inflation eased to 2.8% in April, but the relief is not clear.
BOJ faces a harder choice as JGB yields test Japan’s policy limits
The Bank of Japan is being pulled in two directions at once. Inflation pressure is still strong enough to keep markets pricing another rate hike, but the bond market is already under heavy strain.
Central banks and ETF inflows keep gold supported as inflation risks return
Gold is still being supported by one of the strongest structural stories in global markets: official demand, investor inflows, and renewed concern that inflation may not fade as smoothly as central banks had hoped.
Oil market relief still depends on the deal markets can trust
Oil markets are being pulled in two directions at once. On one side, the International Energy Agency is warning that the market could move into a critical red zone by July as stockpiles fall and summer demand rises.
Kevin Warsh takes over the Fed as Trump pushes for lower rates
Kevin Warsh is set to take charge of the Federal Reserve at one of the most politically sensitive moments for US monetary policy in years. President Donald Trump will swear him in at the White House on Friday, putting a long-time Fed critic and former central bank governor at the center of a difficult policy fight: whether to lower interest rates as the White House wants, or keep policy tight as inflation pressure remains above target.
ECB caught between inflation credibility and weak growth
The euro area is moving back into the kind of policy problem central banks really do not like. Inflation is rising again, not because demand is booming, but because energy prices and geopolitical risk are pushing costs higher. At the same time, growth is already losing momentum.
Iran talks leave markets stuck between diplomacy and war risk
Markets are no longer trading the Iran story as a simple geopolitical shock. They are now trying to price two paths at once: a negotiated deal that lowers energy risk, or a renewed military campaign that keeps inflation pressure alive and pushes long-dated bond yields even higher.
Japan inflation pressure puts Takaichi and the BOJ on opposite sides
Japan is moving into a more uncomfortable policy phase. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is preparing extra fiscal support to soften the hit from rising fuel and electricity costs, while producer inflation is accelerating fast enough to put new pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. The problem is that both sides are responding to the same shock in very different ways.
US treasury yields near 2007 highs as investors debate whether bonds are finally worth buying
Long-dated US Treasury yields are back near levels last seen before the global financial crisis, forcing investors into an uncomfortable choice. Some see a rare opportunity to lock in yields above 5%, while others argue the selloff is not finished and that inflation, deficits and policy uncertainty could still push long-end rates even higher.
