Dollar holds firm amid global monetary shifts

Amidst global monetary shifts, the dollar maintains its steady position, reflecting market resilience and ongoing evaluations of central bank policies.

By Ahmed Azzam | @3zzamous | 6 May 2024

Market open
  • US payroll report fueled optimism over potential Fed rate cuts

  • Market anticipates 45 basis points in total rate cuts this year.

Dollar index holds firm

The dollar index maintained its position above 105 on Monday, with investors persistently evaluating the Federal Reserve's stance on monetary policy and anticipating forthcoming central bank insights. Last week witnessed a decline of approximately 1% in the index following the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates and Chair Powell's dismissal of the likelihood of further rate increases to address persistent inflationary pressures. Powell reiterated the central bank's inclination towards easing despite a postponement in the anticipated timeline. Additionally, data revealed a moderation in job gains for the US economy, with 175,000 jobs added in April, compared to the revised figure of 315,000 in March, falling short of market projections of 243,000. Market sentiment currently anticipates a total reduction of 45 basis points in interest rates for the year, with a November adjustment fully factored in. Externally, the dollar encountered pressure from a substantial surge in the yen during the previous week, amid speculation that the Bank of Japan had expended over 9 trillion yen to bolster its currency.

Yellen addresses Yen surge

Addressing the yen's notable fluctuations, Janet Yellen acknowledged the developments but referred to reported Japanese intervention as "speculation." While officials possess the capability to mitigate volatility, the US administration anticipates such interventions to be infrequent, with a prior consultation process in place.

Fed officials' views

John Williams indicated a downward trajectory for inflation and emphasized the Fed's steadfast commitment to achieving its targeted inflation rate. Austan Goolsbee suggested that policymakers could enhance the clarity of their economic assessments through improved communication strategies.