Technical Analysis Q4 2025 Outlook

Charting Q4: Technical signals across gold, oil and currencies

Markets head into Q4 2025 at key technical turning points. The US dollar stays under pressure within a broad downtrend, gold is testing new highs and oil still struggles against bearish pressure. Major currency pairs, including EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY, are also trading near pivotal support and resistance levels that could define the direction into year-end.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index is trading within a descending channel. It recently found strong support near 95.80 and has since rebounded to around 97.50, although it remains confined within the channel’s range.

On the support side, a break below 95.80 could pave the way for further declines towards 93.70 and then 93.30. This area represents both a horizontal support zone and the lower boundary of the descending channel, making it the key downside scenario for Q4.

On the resistance side, 98.50 is a key horizontal level as well as the upper boundary of the channel.

A break above it could encourage further upside, but a confirmed shift to an upward trend would require a move beyond the main resistance at 99.75.

In that case, the index could extend gains towards 101.50 and then 104.30.

A break above it could encourage further upside, but a confirmed shift to an upward trend would require a move beyond the main resistance at 99.75. In that case, the index could extend gains towards 101.50 and then 104.30.

Technical assessment:

The overall trend stays bearish while the index trades below 99.75, with a higher likelihood of continuing down towards the channel’s lower boundary in the coming period.

Gold

Gold posted strong gains of about 18% in Q3, breaking above 3,450 and extending its rally to a record high near 3,895 dollars.

Buying momentum remains strong, and with the price moving inside an ascending channel in the short and medium term, the chances of further upside are increasing.

If gold moves above 3,895, the market is expected to target the 4,000 level, which is a key psychological resistance. A break above this level could open the way for further gains towards 4,200 dollars in the final quarter of the year.

On the support side, gold faces a key level at 3,790 dollars that needs to hold in the short term. A break below it could trigger a correction towards 3,720, and a further drop could extend to 3,620, a strong and critical support zone. If 3,620 is breached, the price may fall back to 3,450, which remains the strongest support for now.

Technical assessment:

The overall trend for gold remains bullish, backed by strong buying momentum. As long as major support levels hold, the rally has a strong chance of extending to new record highs.

Oil

Oil continues to trade within a broad descending channel on the daily chart. In the short to medium term, Q3 showed sideways movement between $65.70 and $61.30. After breaking below $61.30, the lower boundary of this range, the price slipped back into the larger descending channel.

The decline is likely to extend toward $59.00, with $55.00 as the next major support level.

On the resistance side, the key level is $65.70. A break above it could open the way to $70.00 and then $71.50, which align with major resistance zones and the upper boundary of the descending channel.

Technical assessment:

The overall trend for oil stays bearish as long as prices remain within the broad descending channel, unless key resistance levels are broken.

EURUSD

EURUSD is trading within an ascending channel but is facing strong resistance at 1.1850. A break above this level would support the uptrend, with an intermediate hurdle at 1.2000 before targeting the channel’s upper boundary near 1.2250.

On the support side, 1.1650 is the first key level, while the more important floor sits at 1.1570. A break below this zone could trigger further short-term declines toward 1.1400.

Holding above 1.1400 is crucial, as a break under it may shift the medium- to long-term trend to bearish, opening the way to 1.1100 as the next major target.

The lower boundary of the ascending channel lies around 1.1630–1.1570, a critical support zone that needs to hold for the current uptrend to remain intact.

Technical assessment:

The overall trend for EURUSD remains bullish as long as the price holds above 1.1570. A break of the key resistance at 1.1850 would strengthen the case for further gains toward 1.2000 and potentially 1.2250.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD is trading in a sideways range with a mild bearish tilt in the short to medium term.

In the last quarter, price action has been centred around the key support level at 1.3330.

A break below 1.3330 could open the way to the key support at 1.3150. If that level fails, the broader trend may turn bearish, with scope for a decline towards 1.2700.

On the resistance side, 1.3530 is the first key level. A break above it could add bullish momentum, opening a test of 1.3750, the top of the current range. Clearing 1.3750 would signal a breakout, with room to extend towards 1.3900 and 1.4000.

Technical assessment:

GBPUSD is still moving sideways with a bearish tilt while it trades below 1.3750. The 1.3150–1.3750 corridor remains in place: a drop under 1.3150 would shift the trend bearish, while a break above 1.3750 could set up a move toward 1.3900–1.4000.

USDJPY

During the last quarter, USDJPY has traded within a narrow sideways band. A firm resistance has recently formed at 151.00, while the current price near 147.40 is testing an important ascending trendline that must hold to maintain the bullish structure.

On the upside, a break above 151.00 would likely extend the bullish move, opening the way towards 154.70 and then 159.00 as the next resistance levels.

On the downside, if USDJPY retreats from the current 147.40 area, the first support lies at 145.50, which aligns with both an ascending trendline and a previous horizontal bottom.

If 145.50 breaks in the short to medium term, USDJPY could slide towards the next key support at 142.00. A further break below that level may extend the decline to 140.00, which marked the pair’s lowest point in April 2025.

Technical assessment:

The overall trend for USDJPY remains sideways with a bullish tilt as long as the pair holds above the ascending trendline and support at 145.50. A break below these levels would likely turn the trend bearish in the short to medium term, opening the way towards 142.00 and potentially 140.00.