Five key U.S. economic data points to watch this week

Investors will be closely watching a series of U.S. economic data releases this week, with labor market conditions, inflation trends, and consumer confidence set to shape market sentiment and Federal Reserve policy expectations.

Job Openings (JOLTS) – Tuesday, March 11

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report will provide fresh insight into labor demand. A higher-than-expected reading—above the prior 7.6 million—would signal resilience in the labor market, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy stance for longer.

Conversely, a decline in job openings could point to softening economic conditions, potentially fueling speculation about interest rate cuts later this year. A cooling labor market may also raise concerns about economic momentum heading into the second quarter.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Wednesday, March 12

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be a crucial gauge of inflationary pressures. Economists expect a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, slightly below the previous 3.0%. A higher reading could dampen hopes for Fed rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and pushing Treasury yields higher.

A softer inflation print, however, would reinforce expectations that price pressures are easing, increasing the likelihood of a more accommodative stance from the central bank. Markets will be particularly focused on core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, for signs of persistent inflation.

Initial Jobless Claims – Thursday, March 13

Weekly jobless claims will offer a real-time snapshot of labor market conditions. Economists anticipate a reading of around 220,000, following last week’s 221,000. A decline in claims would signal continued labor market strength, potentially dampening expectations of near-term rate cuts.

Higher-than-expected claims, on the other hand, could suggest emerging weakness in the job market, adding to concerns about economic slowing and bolstering expectations for Fed intervention.

Producer Price Index (PPI) – Thursday, March 13

The Producer Price Index (PPI) will provide additional inflation data, measuring wholesale price trends. Analysts expect a 0.3% month-over-month increase. A stronger-than-expected reading would reinforce concerns about persistent cost pressures, potentially limiting the Fed’s ability to cut rates.

A softer PPI print could ease inflation concerns, strengthening the case for looser monetary policy in the coming months. Markets will be watching for any divergence between CPI and PPI data, which could indicate supply-side pressures or easing demand.

Consumer Sentiment – Friday, March 15

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index will offer a gauge of public confidence in the economy. A reading above the anticipated 64.0 would suggest resilience in consumer spending, which has been a key driver of economic growth.

Weak sentiment, however, could point to growing concerns over inflation, labor market conditions, or broader economic uncertainty, potentially influencing monetary policy expectations.