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Palantir at record high as US markets show mixed performance
The Nasdaq outperformed other US indices after Palantir Technologies reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter results and raised guidance for Q4 2025 on robust AI demand. By contrast, the Dow underperformed amid a soft ISM manufacturing PMI, which extended the sector’s run of contraction to eight months.
Palantir rose to a record close after beating Q3 revenue and EPS forecasts and upgrading Q4 2025 guidance on AI-related strength.
Palantir’s shares are up c. 163 per cent year-to-date; the company’s valuation metrics remain elevated.
The ISM manufacturing PMI printed 48.7, below expectations and signalling continued contraction in US manufacturing.
Major US indices finished mixed: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 advanced modestly while the Dow Jones closed lower.
Ether declined c. 7.6 per cent following reports of a c. $100 million hack, and Bitcoin fell c. 3.5 per cent on correlated selling.
Palantir posts an upside surprise; valuation questions persist
Palantir Technologies closed at a record US$207.18, up c. 3.35 per cent, after reporting third-quarter revenue of US$1.18 billion versus consensus of US$1.09 billion — roughly a 63 per cent year-on-year increase. Adjusted earnings per share were US$0.21, ahead of an expected US$0.17, representing a year-on-year rise of about 110 per cent. The company also raised its Q4 2025 revenue guidance to US$1.33 billion, above analysts’ forecasts of US$1.19 billion, citing continued strength in its AI business and ongoing contract wins, including government programmes despite the current federal funding lapse.
Palantir’s rapid growth has supported a substantial re-rating: the company’s market capitalisation stands around US$491.50 billion and year-to-date share performance is approximately +163 per cent. Nevertheless, valuation multiples remain aggressive — in Q2 2025 the price-to-earnings ratio was c. 453x and the price-to-book ratio c. 54x — inviting scrutiny from sceptical market participants concerned about long-term sustainability if free cash flow does not scale commensurately with revenue.
Equity-market breadth was uneven: the S&P 500 closed up 0.17 per cent at 6,851, the Nasdaq-100 gained 0.44 per cent to 25,972, while the Dow Jones fell 0.48 per cent to 47,336.
Figure 1. Palantir stock prices: historical overview (2021-2025). Source: data from the Nasdaq Exchange. Figure obtained from TradingView.
ISM manufacturing PMI signals persistent contraction
The Institute for Supply Management reported a manufacturing PMI reading of 48.7, missing expectations of 49.5 and falling from the prior month’s 49.1. The print indicates continued contraction in the sector (sub-50), driven by declines in production and inventories; employment and supplier-delivery measures also softened. The manufacturing PMI has now been below 50 for eight consecutive months since March 2025, a stretch that market observers have linked to tariff measures and broader trade frictions that have weighed on industrial demand and supply-chain dynamics.
The sector’s weakness was reflected in the underperformance of industrial-heavy indices, contributing to the Dow’s relative decline versus the tech-led gains in the Nasdaq.
Crypto markets retreat after reported multimillion-dollar hack
CNBC reported a suspected hack affecting a protocol on the Ethereum network that may have resulted in losses of roughly US$100 million. Ether fell c. 7.6 per cent to close near US$3,600. Given the high correlation across major cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin also traded lower, down c. 3.47 per cent to approximately US$106,500. The episode highlights persistent operational and security risks in decentralised finance infrastructure and contributed to a c. 27 per cent decline in Ether from recent peaks, while Bitcoin has retraced c. 15 per cent over the same period.
Wall Street's third-quarter reporting (week overview)
This week is particularly significant due to the large number of U.S. companies reporting their third-quarter financial results. Some of the most notable firms, both in terms of market capitalization and public interest, include the following:
Monday
- Palantir (PLTR)
Tuesday
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
- Shopify (SHOP)
- Amgen (AMGN)
- Pfizer (PFE)
Wednesday
- McDonald’s (MCD)
- Qualcomm (QCOM)
Thursday
- AztraZeneca (AZN)
- Airbnb (ABNB)
Key economic events this week
Monday
- US: ISM Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday
- Australia: RBA Interest Rate Decision
- US: JOLTs Job Openings
Wednesday
- US: ISM Services PMI
- US: ADP Employment Change
- Australia: Balance of Trade
Thursday
- United Kingdom: BoE Interest Rate Decision
- Canada: Ivey PMI
- Mexico: Banxico Interest Rate Decision
Friday
- China: Balance of Trade
- China: Exports
- China: Imports
- Germany: Balance of Trade
- US: Non Farm Payrolls
- US: Unemployment Rate
- US: Michigan Consumer Sentiment
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