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Trump stays on the sidelines of Russia–Ukraine conflict; oil drops on peace hopes
Markets are increasingly pricing the possibility of a Russia–Ukraine peace deal, pushing crude prices lower amid expectations of future sanction relief and higher Russian supply.
Trump says he has no plans to send U.S. troops to Ukraine
Oil extends its decline on the prospect of increased Russian output
Canada’s inflation cools again while labor indicators stay weak
U.S. building permits dip even as new-home activity continues to recover
Trump rules out troop deployment
Following meetings with European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, President Donald Trump said he has no intention of deploying U.S. troops to Ukraine under existing security guarantees. He argued that such commitments should be led by the European Union. The statement comes against the backdrop of ongoing talks with Russia, which has demanded security assurances as a precondition for any peace settlement.
Oil weakens on peace expectations and sanction-relief scenarios
Brent and WTI fell around 1.4% as traders continued to price in the likelihood of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. A deal could pave the way for the easing of economic sanctions on Moscow, boosting Russian crude supply and putting downward pressure on prices. Steady demand from China and India has kept export flows intact, reinforcing the bearish tone in oil markets.
Canada’s inflation slows, labor market still soft
Canada’s CPI slowed to 1.7% YoY in July from 1.9%, undershooting the 1.8% consensus. Core inflation eased to 2.6% YoY, weighing on the Canadian dollar, which fell about 0.40% in intraday trading. While disinflation is broadly constructive, labor market conditions remain fragile. The unemployment rate has been trending higher over the past three years, reaching 6.9%.
U.S. housing data show mixed signals
U.S. housing indicators were mixed. New-home construction rose 5.2% in June, extending the rebound that began in May. However, building permits declined by 2.8% and remain below 1.4 million units on an annualized basis, reflecting a cautious outlook for the construction industry. Mortgage rates near 7% — close to decade-highs — continue to dampen demand and discourage long-cycle projects.
