... Trade Reviews Brent crude rises amid supply-chain disruption

Brent crude rises amid supply-chain disruption

Brent futures rose after reports of damage to a major Russian export terminal raised concerns about a temporary disruption to global crude flows. The move was compounded by the proximity of Western sanctions deadlines on Russian energy firms and lingering uncertainty over OPEC+ production intentions.

By Daniel Mejía | 15 November 2025

Reports of an attack on the Novorossiisk export terminal prompted a near-term risk premium, pushing Brent higher as traders re-assess seaborne supply.
Western sanctions and the approaching cut-off date for business with certain Russian entities (21 November 2025) amplify the short-term supply risk.
OPEC+ discussions of production increases for coming months counterbalance the disruption narrative, creating a tug-of-war between supply-side downside and upside risks.
Technically, Brent is consolidating in the short term but remains below its major moving averages and inside a longer-term bearish channel.

Brent future contract: current context

According to Reuters and market sources, the Novorossiisk terminal — a major Russian export hub — sustained damage to storage and loading facilities following a Ukrainian attack, interrupting shipments and prompting concerns about near-term seaborne crude availability. Given Novorossiisk’s role in Russia’s export capacity, the incident introduced an immediate geopolitical risk premium into the oil complex.

As markets re-priced the potential reduction in flows, the Brent futures contract (BRNF6) appreciated approximately 2.19 per cent to about US$64.39 per barrel. Participants are also weighing the cumulative effect of forthcoming Western sanctions and the US deadline of 21 November 2025 for winding down certain transactions with sanctioned Russian entities; these factors could further restrict available supply if they materially curtail exports.

At the same time, reports that OPEC+ may consider modest production increases for the coming months act as a countervailing influence. The result is a market grappling with two opposing forces: an immediate supply shock from the Novorossiisk disruption and the potential for additional output from OPEC+ members. That duality is contributing to elevated price volatility and a broader sense of uncertainty about where near-term equilibrium prices will settle.

Technical analysis on Brent futures

From a technical perspective, the price of Brent remains in a long-term bearish trend, trading below its key long-term moving averages. However, in the short term, the contract appears to be forming a consolidation phase. Key observations include:

Trend context. In the long term, the price of Brent is trading below its 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages and is descending within a bearish channel. In the short term, the contract is consolidating in a range, primarily between $60 and $80 per barrel.
Resistance levels. On the upside, relevant technical resistances are identified at: $68 (a structural level, coinciding with the 200-day moving average), $72 (short-term resistance), and $78 (the ceiling of the long-term bearish channel). A decisive break above these levels would signal further upside potential.
Support levels. On the downside, important technical support levels are: $62.62 (short-term support) and $60 (a key short-term support and a relevant psychological level). A loss of the $60 zone would increase the probability of a deeper correction.
Volume analysis. The volume profile indicates a significant distribution, with the Point of Control (POC) located near $66 per barrel. This suggests that this price zone represents a key area of interest for traders and hedgers. Trading volume has also been notable at these lower price levels, indicating that significant activity has taken place during the price decline.