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Europe gas rally reignites as Middle East geopolitical tension
European natural gas futures jumped again as traders priced deeper supply disruption risks, with Europe entering the refill season after winter drawdowns.
Benchmark Dutch front-month gas rose as much as 13% in the session
Europe’s market is more exposed after winter cold depleted already-low reserves
Qatar’s Ras Laffan shutdown intensified supply fears earlier this week
Strait of Hormuz disruption risks tighten global LNG availability and lift prices worldwide
Prices rebound as supply-risk premium returns
European natural gas prices resumed a sharp rally, reversing the prior session’s pullback as traders refocused on the risk of prolonged disruption to LNG flows linked to the war in the Middle East. Benchmark futures surged as much as 13% on Thursday, with markets still lacking clarity on a US plan to ensure safe tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Source: Bloomberg
Geopolitical tension-driven disruptions ripple through energy markets
The conflict, now in its sixth day, has rattled global energy markets by threatening shipping routes and export infrastructure, reviving broader inflation concerns. Traders have increasingly treated the risk as global rather than regional, given how quickly LNG cargoes can be diverted and how tightly balanced supply has become during peak-demand periods.
Europe faces a tougher refill season
Europe’s vulnerability is amplified by its storage position. Prolonged cold spells over the winter depleted fuel reserves that were already low, raising the urgency to secure LNG cargoes over the summer to rebuild inventories. That leaves the region exposed to tighter global supply if Middle Eastern shipments can’t reliably reach international markets.
Qatar outage and Hormuz bottlenecks raise the stakes
European gas hit a three-year high earlier this week after Qatar shut Ras Laffan, the world’s largest LNG export facility, following an Iranian drone assault. With tanker traffic via the Strait of Hormuz reported to be close to a standstill, traders have leaned into a scenario where global LNG availability tightens sharply — even if Asia remains the primary destination for Middle Eastern volumes.
Buyers scramble for alternatives as prices lift
With the pool of available LNG narrowing, buyers have moved to secure replacement volumes. Taiwan has said it locked in LNG for April from outside the Middle East, while Thailand is seeking additional shipments — signals that competition for cargoes is intensifying just as Europe approaches a critical restocking window.
