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Global Macro Analysis
The latest financial, market & economic analysis
The global gold rush: why are central banks turning to gold?
Central banks boost their gold reserves
Why UK inflation is diverging from the euro area
UK inflation surged to 3.8% in July 2025, more than double its level a year ago, while the euro area remains close to the ECB’s 2% target. Structural factors—from energy pricing to wage growth and tax policies—explain the widening gap.
Global inflation shifts from global to local drivers as emerging markets lead slowdown
Price growth worldwide is increasingly shaped by domestic conditions rather than synchronized global forces such as tariffs. Services costs are rebounding in the US, decelerating in the euro area, and remaining persistently high in the UK.
Japan outlook Q3 2025
Japan enters Q3 2025 facing stubborn inflation and fragile growth, leaving the Bank of Japan in a holding pattern as it struggles to balance economic risks ahead of key political events.
US outlook Q3 2025
As Q3 2025 begins, the Fed holds rates steady amid mixed economic data, inflation cooling slowly, and tariff uncertainty clouding the path to potential easing by September.
Gold outlook Q3 2025
Gold enters Q3 2025 with strong support from central bank demand, geopolitical tensions, and a cautious Federal Reserve, reinforcing its role as a safe-haven asset.
Oil outlook Q3 2025
Oil markets in Q3 2025 remain fragile, with OPEC+ managing supply cautiously while geopolitical risks and uneven demand growth add to volatility.
Europe outlook Q3 2025
The EU economy enters Q3 2025 with modest growth, supported by ECB easing, rising defence investment, and a resilient labour market despite global trade uncertainties.
UK outlook Q3 2025
The UK economy enters Q3 2025 at a turning point, with steady growth and IMF upgrades offset by inflation, high debt, and political pressure on fiscal and monetary policy.
China outlook Q3 2025
China’s economy heads into Q3 2025 under pressure from deflation risks, weak manufacturing, and a struggling property sector, with only cautious stimulus deployed to meet its 5% growth goal.
