Global Macro Analysis

Oil Q4 2025 Outlook

Gold Q4 2025 Outlook

The global gold rush: why are central banks turning to gold?

Central banks boost their gold reserves

Why UK inflation is diverging from the euro area

UK inflation surged to 3.8% in July 2025, more than double its level a year ago, while the euro area remains close to the ECB’s 2% target. Structural factors—from energy pricing to wage growth and tax policies—explain the widening gap.

Global inflation shifts from global to local drivers as emerging markets lead slowdown

Price growth worldwide is increasingly shaped by domestic conditions rather than synchronized global forces such as tariffs. Services costs are rebounding in the US, decelerating in the euro area, and remaining persistently high in the UK.

US outlook Q3 2025

As Q3 2025 begins, the Fed holds rates steady amid mixed economic data, inflation cooling slowly, and tariff uncertainty clouding the path to potential easing by September.

Japan outlook Q3 2025

Japan enters Q3 2025 facing stubborn inflation and fragile growth, leaving the Bank of Japan in a holding pattern as it struggles to balance economic risks ahead of key political events.

Europe outlook Q3 2025

The EU economy enters Q3 2025 with modest growth, supported by ECB easing, rising defence investment, and a resilient labour market despite global trade uncertainties.

Crypto outlook Q3 2025

The crypto market enters Q3 2025 with strong institutional inflows, regulatory clarity, and improving global liquidity, supporting Bitcoin’s uptrend and setting the stage for altcoin recovery.

Oil outlook Q3 2025

Oil markets in Q3 2025 remain fragile, with OPEC+ managing supply cautiously while geopolitical risks and uneven demand growth add to volatility.