Global Macro Analysis

BoJ policies and higher yields add pressure to carry trades

Japan’s gradual shift toward policy normalisation, rising government bond yields and a narrowing rate gap are reshaping expectations for the yen and increasing pressure on long-standing carry trades.

BoE balances rate cuts, sticky inflation and UK growth risks

The Bank of England’s cautious shift toward easing comes at a time when inflation remains elevated, growth is subdued and markets are reassessing the outlook for UK rates and sterling.

Japan’s Yen problem: intervention noise, debt reality

The yen is sliding back toward its 2024 lows against the US dollar — and in trade-weighted terms it’s already weaker. Tokyo can talk up FX intervention, but the market’s pressure point isn’t the Ministry of Finance’s dealing desk. It’s Japan’s interest-rate and debt math.

BoE set to cut rates as inflation cools and growth falters

The Bank of England is widely expected to deliver a quarter-point rate cut on Thursday, as easing inflation and a weakening economy shift the policy debate from price pressures toward jobs and growth — even as divisions on the Monetary Policy Committee remain entrenched.

Global economy in 2026: rate cuts, AI investment and the uneven fallout from tariffs

The global economy is heading into 2026 with surprising resilience. A softer Federal Reserve, a booming wave of AI-driven investment and a global rollback of red tape are set to cushion the blow from the trade war’s lingering effects. Growth is expected to cool from 2025’s strong performance but remain broadly stable, while inflation pressures shift asymmetrically — sticky in the U.S., softer elsewhere. China is positioned for a slowdown as tariffs bite, Europe leans on Germany’s fiscal surge fo

Japan’s 30-year bond sale draws strongest demand since 2019, easing pressure on super-long yields

Japan’s 30-year auction cleared with a 4.04 bid-to-cover, the best since 2019, pulling the 30-year yield down to 3.39% and offering relief to a market braced for a potential BOJ hike in December.

Fed-driven equity bounce looks fragile as inflation and AI angst bite

U.S. stocks whipped from dump to pump in November on shifting rate-cut odds, but with inflation sticky and AI euphoria showing cracks, the rally is running on fumes. Unless growth, margins, and policy all line up, multiples face gravity.

China Q4 2025 Outlook

EU Q4 2025 Outlook

US Q4 2025 outlook