Gold holds as markets look for direction

Commodities find footing amid trade tensions and supply dynamics

By Farah Mourad | 21 March 2025

Market open
  • Euro Weakens as Policy Caution Sets In

  • Gold Holds Steady

  • Oil Softens Slightly

Markets are tuning in to key Canadian retail sales data, offering fresh insights into domestic demand trends. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve official John Williams is slated to speak later today, with investors hoping for clues on the future trajectory of US monetary policy.

The broader backdrop remains tense, with President Trump’s tariff measures expected to take effect on April 2, heightening fears of retaliatory trade action and its knock-on effects on global demand and inflation dynamics.

European Markets

In European trading, the EUR/USD pair is on the defensive, edging toward 1.0800, as cautious sentiment sets the tone ahead of a German Upper House vote on the national budget plan. Ongoing concerns over Trump’s trade strategy and ECB President Lagarde’s remarks have also added pressure on the common currency.

Meanwhile, the Eurozone’s current account data is due, but traders are more focused on potential developments from the EU Leaders Summit, especially amid policy divergence and global headwinds.

Commodities

Gold (XAU/USD) rebounded mildly after dipping to a three-day low earlier in the session, now hovering just above $3,030. Although the precious metal remains under slight bearish pressure due to a resilient US Dollar, expectations that the Federal Reserve could initiate rate cuts sooner than forecast — driven by trade-related economic risks — are providing underlying support.

Market participants appear increasingly confident that any potential slowdown triggered by tariff moves could prompt the Fed to adjust policy, thereby limiting downside for gold and helping it log a third straight weekly gain.

Crude oil prices are marginally lower in Friday’s European session but remain on track for a second consecutive weekly advance.

  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades near $68
  • Brent crude holds around $71.59, both slightly down from Thursday's close.

Supply-side optimism continues to support the market as new US sanctions on Iran and fresh talk of OPEC+ production cuts raise the likelihood of tighter global inventories heading into Q2.