Inflation test ahead of fed speeches

Volatility remains a central theme this week, with markets digesting the geopolitical weight of Trump’s renewed tariff regime. The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs provided a brief reprieve, but the decision to maintain 125% duties on Chinese goods has preserved a tense atmosphere. Investors are now turning toward more familiar catalysts, today’s U.S. inflation data and fresh commentary from Federal Reserve officials.

March CPI is expected to anchor today’s session, offering clarity on whether inflationary pressures are intensifying under the weight of trade distortions. With Fed speakers lined up throughout the day and jobless claims also due, monetary policy expectations are set to shift again.

• CPI will shape the tone of upcoming Fed meetings, particularly amid speculation of a larger rate cut.
  
• Labor data and Fed speeches will serve as sentiment checks against ongoing rate cut pricing.
  

Currencies

The euro holds firm near 1.0980, supported by improved political clarity in Germany after a coalition agreement was reached. The dollar remains rangebound ahead of inflation data, offering the euro space to consolidate.

• A CPI surprise could trigger renewed dollar strength and test current levels.
  
• However, broader expectations for easing may limit downside for EUR/USD in the near term.
  

Commodites

Gold prices remain elevated near $3,132 as traders weigh the inflationary implications of tariff-driven policy shifts. A weaker dollar and growing conviction around Fed rate cuts are keeping the metal well bid.

• Inflation fears tied to trade policies have increased gold’s appeal as a hedge.
  
• The market is ignoring improved risk sentiment for now, focusing instead on underlying macro fragility.
  

Silver extended gains in sympathy with gold, buoyed by safe-haven demand and technical momentum. The industrial angle remains clouded by trade uncertainty, but for now, the defensive bid dominates.

WTI crude has slipped to $61.45, weighed down by a surprise inventory build and persistent concerns over global demand.

• U.S. stockpiles rose by 2.553 million barrels last week, capping any upside attempts.
  
• The broader impact of U.S.-China trade tensions continues to overshadow the partial easing seen elsewhere.
  

A sustained break below $60 could invite stronger downside pressure unless OPEC or demand trends stabilize sentiment.