Statements by Trump shift global trade expectations

Ninety-day extension for the implementation of tariffs on Chinese products

The U.S. President, Donald Trump, announced the signing of an executive order to postpone the tariffs on Chinese products that were about to take effect. The decision comes after the latest round of negotiations held in Stockholm at the end of July. Without an agreement, tariffs would have risen sharply to 145% (U.S. imports) and 125% (Chinese imports). However, the executive order allows tariffs to remain at 30% and 10%, respectively. This considerably reduces trade tensions between both nations and provides a favorable outlook for a potential easing of global trade policy.

In response, U.S. stock markets closed with slight declines, averaging 0.30% for the main benchmark indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq). Investors are now more focused on the inflation data to be released on Tuesday, August 12, which could alter the Federal Reserve’s economic projections and monetary policy stance. On the other hand, the futures contract for China’s benchmark stock index, the FTSE China A50, remained stable with an approximate decline of 0.32%.

Trump declares there will be no tariffs on gold bullion

President Donald Trump stated that gold will not face tariffs, thus nullifying the previous provision for the imposition of taxes on gold bullion, which would have impacted bilateral trade with Switzerland. This statement contrasts with the prior ruling by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Office, which called for a 39% tariff. Specialists in the gold supply chain had already warned that such a measure could negatively affect the international flow of physical gold. However, today’s statement reduces the uncertainty that had been driving up the price of the precious metal due to the potential supply shock that could have been generated. After the New York market close, gold futures prices decreased slightly by approximately 0.10%.

Oil unchanged ahead of U.S.–Russia talks

Crude oil contracts remained unchanged as the market awaits the meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on Friday, August 15, in Alaska. The high-level meeting is expected to be decisive in ending the Russia–Ukraine war, or at least achieving substantial progress. The United States has pressured Russia with possible economic and financial sanctions in the event no peace agreement is reached. In addition, it has pressured Russia’s trade partners by imposing tariffs on countries importing Russian oil, as was the case with India. In contrast, official Russian spokespeople have emphasized that they will not allow any kind of foreign pressure of any nature. Regarding the negotiations, both Russia and Ukraine are seeking the cession of strategic territory; however, the parties involved do not appear to have the same negotiating capacity.

Consequently, oil prices remain sideways. On the one hand, they face mild downward pressure due to the gradual production increase agreed upon by OPEC+ members. On the other hand, potential buying interest has preserved structural support levels near USD $65 per barrel for Brent and USD $60 per barrel for the WTI contract. The sensitivity of oil prices to geopolitical and military tensions has prevented levels from falling below current prices due to the potential supply shocks that any escalation could cause.