Bitcoin Q4 outlook

Can Bitcoin reach $100K in this bullish cycle?

By Nadia Elbilassy | @Nadia Elbilassy | 7 October 2024

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Bitcoin Q4 outlook
  • Potential Targets: Historical trends suggest Bitcoin could reach $100K, but a corrective wave might precede a move toward $70K, with risks of dipping below $50K.

  • Market Surge: Bitcoin surged to $65,000 after the Fed cut interest rates, marking the start of a bullish cycle with an 8% weekly increase.

  • Institutional Demand: Rising concerns over U.S. debt have increased institutional interest in Bitcoin, with significant inflows into ETFs like the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF.

Bitcoin surged to $65,000 after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a point in September, signalling how a loose monetary policy could impact Bitcoin prices. The cryptocurrency saw its sharpest weekly increase since mid-July, climbing nearly 8%.

Based on our analysis, mid-September marked the beginning of Bitcoin’s recent bull cycle. Historical trends and technical analysis suggest that Bitcoin could reach $100K, but a corrective wave is likely approaching before we reach the next target in the $70,000 region. There’s a possibility that Bitcoin might briefly dip below $50,000 before making a significant move up as Q4 often ends on a positive note.

In a bear scenario, Bitcoin prices falling below $60,000 would signal a trend reversal and the end of the uptrend, while it remains critical to break above the key resistance of $67,500 for the bullish trend to continue.

Bitcoin Q4 outlook

Rising institutional demand for Bitcoin

Growing concerns in the US about the deficit and the national debt have increased the appeal of alternative reserve assets as a hedge against the dollar. This has fuelled the recent surge in institutional interest in Bitcoin.

US BTC spot ETF inflows marginally increased in September, with ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF seeing the most net inflows of $81.1 million. BlackRock’s fully fledged US spot Bitcoin ETF iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF has been a driving force of the Bitcoin price in 2024.

Hedge funds, pensions and banks have invested in Bitcoin-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) after they approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January.

Pivotal moment for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies

Traders have already started betting on Q4 based on technical signals that support the case for Bitcoin reaching $100,000. However, upcoming US elections in November could have their own impact on cryptocurrencies, making this a pivotal moment for the industry.

Donald Trump has expressed a desire for the US to become "the Bitcoin and Crypto Capital of the World." His policy agenda includes appointing a crypto-friendly SEC chair, building a national strategic Bitcoin stockpile, and making the US a Bitcoin mining powerhouse, in addition to establishing a Crypto Advisory Council alongside him.

While Kamala Harris is also supportive of crypto, market sentiment seems to align more with a Trump-led administration. A Trump victory could lead to a more favourable regulatory environment, spurring innovation and attracting greater institutional investment in the crypto space, while a Harris win could prolong regulatory uncertainty and pressure prices.

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