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Global Macro Analysis
The latest financial, market & economic analysis
A year after "Liberation Day", global trade looks bruised - not broken
One year after President Donald Trump unveiled his so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs, the feared collapse in global trade has not materialized. The shock was real, but the actual economic damage proved smaller than many expected, thanks to exemptions, delayed implementation, trade deals and a global supply chain that adapted faster than the headlines suggested.
Oil market between options market and supply concerns
Brent crude closed yesterday at $103.76 per barrel, up 5.42% in a single day and a staggering 47.88% over the past month. With Middle East tensions, Russian supply disruptions, and record options positioning, the market is grappling with risks that could easily push prices into uncharted territory. Here’s a deeper look at the forces at play.
Fed faces a new test as war and oil reshape the rates expectations
The Federal Reserve is entering a far more complicated phase of its policy cycle. What once looked like a gradual move toward rate cuts has shifted into a wait-and-see stance, as rising oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions begin to reshape inflation expectations.
Could geopolitical tensions in the Middle East delay the path of rate cuts?
The Federal Reserve heads into this week’s meeting facing a more complicated policy backdrop, as the conflict in the Middle East revives inflation risks and forces markets to rethink the path for US interest rates. What had been a debate over when cuts might begin is increasingly turning into a tougher question: whether the Fed will be able to cut at all this year.
ECB rate hike bets move closer as inflation risks are rising again
The European Central Bank is facing a renewed inflation test as the Iran war pushes energy markets back into focus and revives memories of the region’s 2022 price shock. Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said a policy response may be closer than investors assume, while President Christine Lagarde stressed the ECB will not allow the latest conflict to trigger another damaging inflation spiral across the euro zone.
Weak trade balance reinforces rate hold in New Zealand
Last week, Governor Anna Breman signaled that the economy has room to recover this year without reigniting inflation, reinforcing the central bank’s patient stance. The RBNZ kept its cash rate unchanged and stressed that policy needs to remain accommodative for now. Following those comments, markets sharply scaled back expectations of an imminent hike, with investors now seeing only a small chance of the first increase before December.
2025 was messy — the U.S. economy still grew
Stronger consumer spending and a surge in AI investment powered the American economy through a year marked by tariffs, job cuts and political upheaval.
UK economy edges toward easier policy
UK economy is gradually slowing, with inflation trending lower and the labour market showing signs of stress. While headline prices remain above target, disinflationary trends are giving policymakers room to consider monetary easing, especially if economic slack widens further.
United Kingdom Between inflation and Unemployment
The UK economy is currently caught in a classic squeeze. On one side, the labor market is finally showing the cracks that high interest rates were designed to create. On the other, inflation remains a stubborn guest that refuses to leave quietly, leaving the Bank of England with very little room to maneuver.
OPEC+ control and geopolitical risk keep oil resilient in Q1
Brent should remain supported in Q1 as OPEC+ actively manages supply and geopolitical tensions keep risk pricing elevated. However, softer demand and improving fuel efficiency are likely to cap rallies, keeping the market rangebound.
