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Global Macro Analysis
The latest financial, market & economic analysis
US growth is solid as sticky inflation pressures the Fed
The US enters 2026 with growth intact and inflation above target, keeping the Fed in a difficult holding pattern. It’s not a recession backdrop, but an untidy one as political pressure tests data-led policy this quarter.
OPEC+ control and geopolitical risk keep oil resilient in Q1
Brent should remain supported in Q1 as OPEC+ actively manages supply and geopolitical tensions keep risk pricing elevated. However, softer demand and improving fuel efficiency are likely to cap rallies, keeping the market rangebound.
Gold consolidation paves the way for new highs in 2026
Central bank buying, falling real yields and heightened geopolitical tensions remain the three dominant forces shaping the gold market, supporting prices into 2026 and reinforcing gold’s role as a strategic hedge.
BoE balances rate cuts, sticky inflation and UK growth risks
The Bank of England’s cautious shift toward easing comes at a time when inflation remains elevated, growth is subdued and markets are reassessing the outlook for UK rates and sterling.
BoJ policies and higher yields add pressure to carry trades
Japan’s gradual shift toward policy normalisation, rising government bond yields and a narrowing rate gap are reshaping expectations for the yen and increasing pressure on long-standing carry trades.
Strong industrial demand supports silver in 2026
Silver’s industrial demand is poised to remain a central force in the market as 2026 unfolds, with structural drivers such as energy transition and technology use continuing to offset broader cyclical softness.
Japan’s Yen problem: intervention noise, debt reality
The yen is sliding back toward its 2024 lows against the US dollar — and in trade-weighted terms it’s already weaker. Tokyo can talk up FX intervention, but the market’s pressure point isn’t the Ministry of Finance’s dealing desk. It’s Japan’s interest-rate and debt math.
BoE set to cut rates as inflation cools and growth falters
The Bank of England is widely expected to deliver a quarter-point rate cut on Thursday, as easing inflation and a weakening economy shift the policy debate from price pressures toward jobs and growth — even as divisions on the Monetary Policy Committee remain entrenched.
Global economy in 2026: rate cuts, AI investment and the uneven fallout from tariffs
The global economy is heading into 2026 with surprising resilience. A softer Federal Reserve, a booming wave of AI-driven investment and a global rollback of red tape are set to cushion the blow from the trade war’s lingering effects. Growth is expected to cool from 2025’s strong performance but remain broadly stable, while inflation pressures shift asymmetrically — sticky in the U.S., softer elsewhere. China is positioned for a slowdown as tariffs bite, Europe leans on Germany’s fiscal surge fo
Japan’s 30-year bond sale draws strongest demand since 2019, easing pressure on super-long yields
Japan’s 30-year auction cleared with a 4.04 bid-to-cover, the best since 2019, pulling the 30-year yield down to 3.39% and offering relief to a market braced for a potential BOJ hike in December.
