Global Macro Analysis

The latest financial, market & economic analysis

United Kingdom Between inflation and Unemployment

The UK economy is currently caught in a classic squeeze. On one side, the labor market is finally showing the cracks that high interest rates were designed to create. On the other, inflation remains a stubborn guest that refuses to leave quietly, leaving the Bank of England with very little room to maneuver.

Cooling inflation supports steady eurozone growth

The eurozone enters the first quarter of 2026 with cautious optimism. After navigating supply shocks and a period of elevated inflation in recent years, economic growth has stabilised, remaining steady if unspectacular.

US growth is solid as sticky inflation pressures the Fed

The US enters 2026 with growth intact and inflation above target, keeping the Fed in a difficult holding pattern. It’s not a recession backdrop, but an untidy one as political pressure tests data-led policy this quarter.

OPEC+ control and geopolitical risk keep oil resilient in Q1

Brent should remain supported in Q1 as OPEC+ actively manages supply and geopolitical tensions keep risk pricing elevated. However, softer demand and improving fuel efficiency are likely to cap rallies, keeping the market rangebound.

Gold consolidation paves the way for new highs in 2026

Central bank buying, falling real yields and heightened geopolitical tensions remain the three dominant forces shaping the gold market, supporting prices into 2026 and reinforcing gold’s role as a strategic hedge.

Strong industrial demand supports silver in 2026

Silver’s industrial demand is poised to remain a central force in the market as 2026 unfolds, with structural drivers such as energy transition and technology use continuing to offset broader cyclical softness.

BoE balances rate cuts, sticky inflation and UK growth risks

The Bank of England’s cautious shift toward easing comes at a time when inflation remains elevated, growth is subdued and markets are reassessing the outlook for UK rates and sterling.

BoJ policies and higher yields add pressure to carry trades

Japan’s gradual shift toward policy normalisation, rising government bond yields and a narrowing rate gap are reshaping expectations for the yen and increasing pressure on long-standing carry trades.

Japan’s Yen problem: intervention noise, debt reality

The yen is sliding back toward its 2024 lows against the US dollar — and in trade-weighted terms it’s already weaker. Tokyo can talk up FX intervention, but the market’s pressure point isn’t the Ministry of Finance’s dealing desk. It’s Japan’s interest-rate and debt math.

BoE set to cut rates as inflation cools and growth falters

The Bank of England is widely expected to deliver a quarter-point rate cut on Thursday, as easing inflation and a weakening economy shift the policy debate from price pressures toward jobs and growth — even as divisions on the Monetary Policy Committee remain entrenched.