British Pound's resilience amid UK wage slowdown

The weakening of the US dollar contributes to a modest uptick in the Pound

By Raed Alkhedr | @raedalkhedr | 13 December 2023

GBPUSD Technical Analysis 13-12-2023
  • Pound remains robust vs. US dollar.

  • Markets await Fed and Bank of England rate meetings.

  • Yellen confident in reaching inflation target.

In the dynamic realm of international finance, the British Pound has exhibited resilience, charting a consistent course against the US Dollar for consecutive sessions. This enduring performance comes in spite of a modest deceleration in wages across the United Kingdom during the month of October. While this development carries significance, it is unlikely to exert substantial influence on the Bank of England's steadfast commitment to maintaining historically elevated interest rates well into 2024.

Recent data illuminates a 7.2% increase in average wages within Britain for the month of October. However, this figure falls short of the market's anticipation, which had set the bar at 7.7%. Notably, this reading represents a decline from the previously reported 8%. Simultaneously, the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom has remained steadfast at 4.2% for the quarter ending in October, with unemployment benefit claims registering at 16,000 for the month of November.

Conversely, the US Dollar has seen a dip in its value, triggered by inflationary considerations and the pending announcement from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates. Inflationary growth in the United States has decelerated on an annual basis, edging down to 3.1% in November from the prior month's figure of 3.2%. The core index, measured on the same basis, has held steady at 4%. On a monthly scale, the index has risen from 0.2% to 0.3%.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has voiced her unwavering belief in inflation eventually meeting the target set by the US Federal Reserve. She maintains that there is little cause for alarm regarding the prospect of inflation veering significantly off course from the desired trajectory.

Within the currency trading arena, the British Pound embarked on the third week of trading sessions with a modest descent against the US Dollar, with its value hovering in close proximity to the 1.2530 dollar threshold.

GBPUSD technical analysis:

The British Pound versus the US Dollar pairing has embarked on a downward trajectory, breaching the pivotal support level at 1.2530. This decline may potentially extend its reach, putting the support level at 1.2450 in its crosshairs. Should this level prove susceptible, the decline could continue its descent, targeting the 1.2380 level.

However, should the pairing rally from its present position and establish a foothold above the 1.2530 mark, it may pave the way for an ascent towards the formidable resistance level positioned at 1.2600. In the event that this resistance threshold is successfully overcome, prospects for further upward momentum, carrying it to the 1.2730 level, become increasingly promising.

GBPUSD 13-12-2023