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In-depth insights on market events and major trades
Oil price today: why the physical crude squeeze is easing even with Hormuz still shut
The panic in the physical oil market is fading, at least for now. Cargo premiums that exploded after the Strait of Hormuz disruption have fallen sharply as refiners pull back, run down inventories and hunt for replacement barrels elsewhere. But this is not the same as a return to normal. The market is still living off temporary fixes, and if Hormuz stays effectively closed, the next squeeze may be even harder to absorb
Dollar weakens as hopes for Middle East de-escalation
The US dollar weakened sharply as markets reacted to growing signs that the Middle East conflict may be moving closer to a diplomatic resolution rather than further escalation.
Japan defends the yen as markets bet on a June hike
Japanese authorities intervened in the currency market spending around $34.3 billion to support the weakening yen after it breached 160 per U.S. dollar.
RBA raises rates again as inflation keeps pressure on policymakers
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%, reinforcing the message that policymakers are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with persistent inflation.
BoE facing a hard path
Bank of England walks into this week’s policy meeting with holding rates and facing a more difficult inflation rally than expected earlier in the year.
Fed decision today: Powell’s future may matter more than interest rates
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave rates unchanged again, but the bigger story may be what Jerome Powell says about his own future. With inflation risks still unsettled, the Iran war clouding the outlook and Kevin Warsh moving closer to the chair, this meeting looks less like a policy turning point and more like a handover moment for the world’s most important central bank.
The Fed will hold tomorrow, but the real shift may begin under Warsh
A hold is effectively priced in, and under normal conditions that would make the meeting less consequential. But the policy debate is no longer about this meeting, it is about what happens if inflation begins to reaccelerate.
ECB shift, inflation persistence and rate hike risk
The shift of the 2.0% target into 2027 matters more than the number itself. It effectively extends the ECB’s policy horizon and reduces its flexibility.
Fed between credibility, inflation, and the battle between policy and politics
Even the more dovish policymakers within the Federal Reserve are now warning that inflation remains uncomfortably high, underscoring a clear lack of urgency to act.
Kevin Warsh defends Fed independence before Senate as Trump pushes for rate cuts
Kevin Warsh used his Senate confirmation hearing to deliver the line markets needed to hear: he never promised the White House a rate cut, and he would act independently if confirmed as Federal Reserve chair.
