Market Insights

In-depth insights on market events and major trades

PCE inflation could decide whether the Fed hikes by autumn

The next PCE inflation reading has become more than another data point. It may decide whether markets keep treating the Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift as a warning or start pricing it as a real policy path. The problem is that inflation is no longer moving in a clean direction. If PCE pushes toward 3.4%, and especially if later readings point toward the 4.0% to 4.1% range, the market will have a harder time believing the Fed can stay on hold for long.

US-Iran talks delay keeps oil relief fragile as war premium fades

The delay in Vice President JD Vance’s trip to Switzerland has reminded markets that the US-Iran framework is not yet a finished deal. Formal face-to-face negotiations were expected to begin, but the process was disrupted after renewed violence in southern Lebanon.

Gold trapped between central-bank demand and Fed rate risk

Gold is caught between two powerful forces. On one side, central banks are still sending a strong long-term signal of demand. On the other side, the Federal Reserve is becoming less friendly for non-yielding assets, with nearlyHalf of policymakers now pointing to at least one possible rate hike later this year.

Kevin Warsh’s Fed debut sparks bond selloff as rate-hike bets surge

Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Reserve meeting delivered a clear message to markets: inflation is back at the center of policy. The Fed held rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, but Warsh’s debut press conference, a shorter policy statement and new rate projections pushed traders to price a more aggressive path for rate hikes, triggering a sharp selloff in short-term Treasuries.

UK CPI miss gives BOE more room to hold rates as oil prices fall

UK inflation came in softer than expected in May, strengthening the case for the Bank of England to keep interest rates steady. CPI held at 2.8%, below the 3% consensus forecast and well below the BOE’s earlier 3.3% projection, while falling oil prices after the US-Iran interim peace deal could reduce the risk of a renewed energy-driven inflation shock.

SpaceX market capitalisation exceeds $2.6 trillion

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) has achieved a historic market valuation of $2.66 trillion, positioning itself as the sixth most valuable publicly traded company in the United States following its recent stock market debut.

Kevin Warsh faces first Fed test as markets bet on rate hikes by December

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh enters his first major policy meeting with markets still pricing the risk of rate hikes by December. But the US-Iran peace framework has changed part of the outlook. Lower oil prices could ease inflation expectations, giving Warsh more room to sound balanced rather than aggressively hawkish in his first press conference.

SpaceX IPO retail orders top $100 billion as record listing reshapes private markets

Retail investors have submitted more than $100 billion in orders for SpaceX shares, highlighting the extraordinary demand behind what could become the largest IPO in history. The company is seeking to raise about $75 billion at a valuation near $1.8 trillion, while the listing is also set to unlock billions for early backers and reset valuation benchmarks across private technology markets.

SpaceX IPO a great opportunity or bull trap?

SpaceX could become one of the most important companies in the world and still disappoint public investors. That is the uncomfortable part of the IPO story.

SpaceX IPO order book closes as demand hits $250 billion

The SpaceX IPO is entering its final order-taking stage with investor demand reportedly reaching about $250 billion. The company is seeking to raise $75 billion, making the deal roughly 3.3 times oversubscribed before pricing and its expected Nasdaq debut.