Market Insights

In-depth insights on market events and major trades

BOJ raises rates to 31-year high as weak yen keeps inflation risks alive

The Bank of Japan lifted rates to 1.25%, accelerating its normalization cycle even as inflation remains below 2% and the yen continues to trade near historically weak levels.

Fed hikes rates for first time since 2023 as Warsh keeps another move on the table

The Fed delivered its first rate hike in three years and left another increase on the table as Kevin Warsh made clear that persistent inflation remains the central bank’s priority.

Fed meeting today: what comes after the expected rate increase

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5%, reaching its highest level since 2023, as oil prices surged, inflation remained elevated and investors increasingly priced another rate increase. Markets are now assigning roughly a 92–94% probability to a 25-basis-point hike today at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Why Japan 30-year bond yield matters more than the BoJ rate hike

Takaichi’s administration is pursuing an unusually ambitious investment strategy, with a long-term 370 trillion Yien roadmap covering 17 strategic industries, including AI and semiconductors. The government sees investment-led growth to raise productivity and strengthen Japan’s industrial base.

Fed rate hike test puts Kevin Warsh’s credibility in focus

The Fed heads into its September meeting with inflation still at 3.4% and markets heavily pricing a rate hike, turning the decision into an early credibility test for Kevin Warsh.

US Treasury yields near 5%: why bond market is ignoring buybacks

Treasury repurchased $5.2 billion securities in its latest operation, below the $6 billion maximum and only about half of the roughly $10.5 billion offered. Instead of calming the market, Treasury yields continued to rise, with the 10-year yield moving close to 5% and the 30-year yield reaching its highest level in years.

August CPI could decide whether the Fed hikes in September

Friday’s CPI report may be the final piece of data separating a September Fed hold from another rate hike.

Trump’s $5,000 dividend plan faces a $1 trillion fiscal reality

Donald Trump’s proposed $5,000 payment to U.S. adults has grabbed attention, but its fiscal cost and legislative hurdles make implementation far from certain.

Scott Bessent warns yen traders as BOJ rate hike bets intensify

Scott Bessent has delivered his strongest warning yet to traders betting against the yen.

UK bond yields are making Healey’s growth plan harder to deliver

John Healey used his first major speech as chancellor to argue that Britain can still return to stronger growth, but the bond market is asking a harder question: who pays for it? The government is heading into October 28 budget with borrowing costs close to their highest levels in years. The 10-year gilt yield was around 5.29%, the highest since 2007.